It is difficult to tell what is going on in Germany these days. For those like me who have one foot in Berlin, the other in Italy, the feeling is to live on two completely different planets. In recent times in Germany, public discussion on war has increased considerably.

Speaking at the Bundestag, Friedrich Merz, who could become the new federal chancellor, has clearly said that a hybrid war of Russia has already begun. And in fact, not a day passes that there are no reports of flights from suspicious drones on the barracks, sabotages to military sites, more or less concrete risks of espionage. In addition, in recent weeks two deadly slaps have arrived who have had a certain impact on German politics and public opinion.

The first at the Monaco security conference, when the American vice -president JD Vance cleared all the most radical themes dear to the most radical right: he said that in Europe freedom of opinion is in danger and that the “firewall”, that is, the choice of German parties not to ally with the overduct of alternatives Für Deutschland (AFD), is not a democratic tool.

The second slap came with the images from the oval studio, with Trump who budded the Ukrainian President Zelensky. It is also true, more than an observer pointed it out, that they were somehow expected things, anticipated for some time. But the power of images and words should not be underestimated. In this climate the Germans went to the vote.

The latest elections in Germany

Five parties have exceeded the five percent threshold and will sit in the next parliament: the conservatives are first but their result is under expectations, the SPD collapses, the green are in difficulty, Linke resurrects despite (or perhaps thanks) the split of Sahra Wagenknecht, and exceeds twenty percent the ultra -decay of Afd. At this point the coalition of government, more obligatory than desired, is the old ‘great coalition’, which is now so large, between conservatives and social democrats.

If he wants to become a chancellor Merz needs social democracy and in a few days he tried to define the foundations of an agreement: on the one hand investing in the defense, he mentioned Mario Draghi “Whatever It Takes”, costs what costs.

German rearmament and mandatory leverage

In this regard, the feeling is that the country prepares a completely new relationship with the armed forces: there is talk of reintroducing the mandatory lever, but it appears more a gimmick of the moment than an authentic political project, and to define the rules for a European nuclear umbrella. Merz is clear one thing: if he wants to define a European defense policy he must show the allies that is serious, that Germany will really invest in the army and which it is good to define as soon as possible continental rules.

The conservative leader had to grant social democrats to invest in infrastructure (schools, kindergartens, bridges, railways), 500 billion. Someone already speaks of the end of German austerity and imagine similar projects also in Europe. It is perhaps the case to remain calm: if for the defense it is actually a circumstances of the brake to debt, the 500 billion of the infrastructures are a special fund in constitution. The same Bundesbank, which is also in favor of investments and debts to make them, remains faithful to the European rules on stability. So far an agreement between the two political forces reached very quickly.

The road traced

But there is a difficulty: these investments require a modification of the German Constitution, i.e. a qualified majority of two thirds. In the new Parliament this majority risks being impossible to reach. The solution was Byzantine: the old Bundestag is called, formally still in office, and forced stages are proceeded. The discussion began on Thursday, the vote on Tuesday 18th. However, even in this case, conservatives and social democrats alone do not have the majority of two thirds, the votes of the Greens are needed. Just the party against which Friedrich Merz but above all his Bavarian ally Markus Söder conducted the election campaign, with hard tones, often unpleasant.

Merz Thursday at the Bundestag said that a part of the investments will be intended for the protection of the climate: this has unleashed the hilarity of the ultra -right. Alice Weidel of AFD reproached him: “On one thing Angela Merkel was right: she, Merz, is not suitable for becoming a chancellor, her time has expired”. The negotiations went on during the night and in the end the agreement arrived: the green obtain a series of reassurances, including those to which they kept most: one hundred billion for the defense of the climate, aid indefinite to Ukraine and the guarantee that the infrastructure fund will not cover budget cuts.

In addition, the green light of the Federal Constitutional Court also arrived on Friday, to whom AFD and Linke had turned, who believed that for so important decisions competent was only the new Bundestag. The Court has rejected the appeals: until the establishment of the new Bundestag, the old man can act as best he believes.

How the German Constitution changes

If Tuesday manages to change the Constitution, Friedrich Merz will already have one foot in the federal chancellery. Above all, it will have exceeded a test with the allies of the SPD: and for Merz, who has never had government positions to date, not even at the local level, it would be a good start. But also for the country: the writer is convinced that in the future the judgment on the chancellor of Olaf Scholz will be more sober and all in all positive.

Many of the things that Merz intends today has started Scholz. But there is no doubt that the traffic light coalition, the first with three parties of the Federal Republic (if we exclude the first Adenauer governments), has not given a good proof of itself: quarrelsome, unable to define an acceptable compromise for the new situation, constantly divided on main issues. It is also true, however, that he had to face challenges to make his wrists tremble.

Merz one step away from the chancellery

Now the country wants to have a more efficient and united government. Merz knows: on this basis he wants to build an agreement that puts the country back in order and manages to contain the success of the most extreme right. And there is an agreement: synthesized in eleven pages, in which conservatives can boast the awaited turn on immigration and a close to social subsidies, the SPD an increase in minimum wages, a law to strengthen collective bargaining and even a commission to reform the brake on debt. Sixteen thematic groups are already at work.

If Tuesday Parliament approves the constitutional reform, the road will be downhill. Otherwise you will have to start over.