The Axial Seamount submarine volcanolocated 480 km off the coast ofOregon (in the United States), it could be erott by the end of 2025. These are the conclusions to which some Chinese and American researchers arrived whose latest work was published on June 4 on Nature Communications. Axial Seamount is located where the Juan de Fuca plate moves away from that of Pacific And it is the most active volcano of the north-eastern Pacific, with three eruptions in the last 30 years. The hypothesis of an eruption off the coast of Oregon has been developed on the basis of hundreds of earthquakes which in recent months, every day, have affected the area, but also on degree of deformation reached by the volcano. The eruptions of the Exial Seamount, which took place three times in the past 30 years (1998, 2011 And 2015), they are not dangerous since it emits fluid lavabut they could influence the life of marine organisms. Despite this, it is the submarine volcano better monitored to the world And his study could be essential to be able to predict much more dangerous eruptions of other volcanoes on the mainland.
The characteristics of the Exial Seamount
The Axial Seamount is located along the Juan de Fuca dorsala portion of the medium-ocean ridge that extends into the Pacific Ocean along the coast of the North Western United States. The ridge constitutes an inception of the ocean backdrop at which the Juan de Fuca and Pacific lithospheric plaques move away from each other at the rhythm of about 6 cm per year. Here, in correspondence with the fractures that cross the ridge, magma comes out that feeds submarine volcanoes. The Axial Seamount is very high (it rises for about 1100 m Above the ridge) thanks to a remarkable accumulation of magma that is not only due to the removal between the plates. In the area, in fact, the emission of Magma is greater than along the rest of the ridge thanks to the presence of a hot pointthat is, a restricted and relatively fixed area in correspondence of which columns of magma continually date back from the cloak.
The Axial Seamount is a shield volcano, that is, wide and with not very steep walls, since the lava that comes out is very fluid and tends to expand laterally. This type of lava feeds effusive eruptionsmuch less dangerous than the explosive ones powered by more viscose lava.
The future eruption of the Exial Seamount
Discovered in the 80sthe Axial Seamount is monitored since 1997. The fact that it is continuously controlled has made it possible to observe that the volcano from the last eruption has swollen slowly Due to the pressure of the magma in ascent and this year he reached the same deformation values that had affected him before the 2015 eruption. In recent months they are earthquakes also increasedwhich are manifested hundreds every day. These phenomena have made it possible to establish that probably The Axial Seamount will errocked by 2025.
The eruption it is not considered imminentThat is, it is not believed that it will take place within a few days or weeks, because seismic activity is not so intense as to make it suppose. It would not be the first time that such a prediction proves correct: The 2015 eruption had in fact been scheduled seven months in advance. But what should we expect to happen when the volcano will erupt? The fluid lava will expand along the slopes, but Nothing will be seen on the surface. It will therefore be aquiet eruption which will not be accompanied by tsunami and which will not be dangerous for the population. However, the lava could overwhelm marine bodies and also the instruments used for monitoring.
Over time Axial Seamount has shown a behavior that tends to repeat itself in the same way, so it is relatively simple to elaborate forecasts. For most volcanoes this is more complicated, but in this sense the monitoring of the Exial Seamount could prove to be important. Bill Chadwickassociated researcher at Oregon State University and volcano expert said:
We hope that the lessons we learn here will be applied to volcanoes around the world
