A great expert of Conclavi, one of those who do not teach it, behind the promise of anonymity agrees to advance his prediction. “There is certainly only one thing: the new pope will be male, celibate and Catholic. The more it is impossible to say.”

Obvious exaggeration (for example: it will certainly be a cardinal, and almost certainly one of those present in Sistine) which, however, serves to make a concept clear: a few hours after the extra omnes nothing is predictable, everything is possible and the axis could happen.

From Luciani to Bergoglio: unexpected popes and continuous surprises

Suffice it to think about what happened in the last four conclants, when in three cases out of four came out dressed in white from the loggia of blessings a cardinal who was not found on the lists of the papabili compiled by journalists on the days of the eve.

In the Conclavi of 1978 (two), 2005 and 2013, only Ratzinger had entered Pope in Sistine and Pope had arisen outside. Luciani, on the other hand, was mentioned only because Patriarch of Venice. Wojtyla nobody knew him and when the protohacone Pericles Felice pronounced his name everyone thought of an African. Bergoglio was known only in Argentina (although it had been quite voted in 2005, but everyone had forgotten about it).

Now the situation could reproduce itself, so that the names most accredited by journalists are in all likelihood destined to end up in the fire of the stove placed in the Sistine, in which the cards and notes of the Conclavari Fathers are burned every day.

Strong candidates: who must win immediately

The general congregations went on for days but the number of cardinals is high (everyone can speak, even the non -voters), in very few they know each other and therefore the amalgam has gone slowly. So much so that at an initial optimism of the cardinals about the duration of the conclave (“we will do soon, a maximum of a day or two”) we have moved on to a more realistic calculation (“the important thing is to do well, one day or two more nothing changes”).

To us who will remain outside the Conclave will therefore only remain to look at the most famous chimney in the world and gradually that the hours are starting to draw the first conclusions. As the ballots pass (one will keep one on Wednesday, then four a day of which two in the morning and two in the afternoon) the chances for the candidates who enter “popes” in conclave decrease terribly.

Just to be clear: if Parolin has any hope (and to read the newspapers it seems to have them) it is in the first two-maxim-three votes. The same applies to Zuppi, or for someone well identified as belonging to a group defined as the progressives Tagle, Aveline, Pizzaballa or to the opposite some conservative such as the African Sarah. Not very probable hypothesis because nobody seems to have those 90 votes available but still possible.

If everything is complicated

If no candidacy had sprung up on Thursday afternoon, then the work of the “bridges” would begin in search of a compromise name, a search that could employ at least another day (it would therefore go on Friday).

And here the field is more open, because it would be a matter of identifying a less exposed profile. So a moderate conservative like the Hungarian Erdo, or figures who keep together different aspects such as the American Prevost, the Congolese Besengu, the Swedish Arborelius, the Spanish Romero and many others. Many voices that chase each other, but most of the time they are more interested voices than real, put around by those who have some advantage from spreading them and few news.

At the moment the real advances has the Holy Spirit, and it is not said that he wants to reveal them to anyone.

The conclave live: who will be the new pope