The new von der Leyen Commission begins to take shape

The new von der Leyen Commission begins to take shape

Ursula von der Leyen has sent a letter to the 27 governments of the member states asking them to send her the names of the candidates for the next College as soon as possible. The deadline for the member states to forward the chosen profiles to the European Commission is August 30: by that date, those who do not confirm the outgoing commissioner for a new mandate will have to provide the name of a female candidate and a male candidate.

The names already known

Several governments have already announced their names: there are both confirmations and (more or less) new faces. Germany and Estonia respectively express von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas, appointed by the European Council as High Representative for Foreign Policy (with Giorgia Meloni voting against). As for the reconfirmations already certain, there are the Dutch Wopke Hoekstra (outgoing Commissioner with responsibility for Climate), the Latvian Valdis Dombrovskis (head of Economy) and the Slovak Maros Sefcovic (Interinstitutional Relations), who will be the dean of the European executive arriving at his fourth term.

The Spanish government will propose the current Minister for Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera, for whom it hopes to obtain a weighty portfolio related to climate or energy. Sweden is betting on the Minister for European Affairs, Jessika Roswall, and Finland on the three-time MEP Henna Virkkunen. The Czech Republic has already nominated the Minister of Industry and Trade Jozef Síkela as a candidate, while for Slovenia it is expected to be the former president of the Court of Auditors Tomaz Vesel.

Now, these are obviously the candidates preferred by the various governments, but given the request to propose two names of different genders, Madrid, Stockholm, Helsinki, Prague and Ljubljana should also add a second profile to those just listed, especially those who have proposed only a man, even if it is not clear what will happen if they do not do so. At the moment the only capital to have had a sort of “exemption” from this rule will be Dublin, due to an internal agreement within the government majority: the new Irish commissioner will have to be the former Minister of Finance Michael McGrath.

Who’s missing from the roll call?

Among the member states that have not yet formally identified their candidates is Italy: the name that has been circulating most insistently, for several weeks now, is that of the Minister for European Affairs Raffaele Fitto, a staunch supporter of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and a well-known face in community circles. As for the female candidacy, diplomat Elisabetta Belloni has been mentioned on a few occasions, but on neither of the two profiles has there ever been an official confirmation or denial from Palazzo Chigi.

In many countries, there are ongoing tug-of-wars between political forces over nominations. Thus, in Poland, the battle between candidates is taking place far from the spotlight. The new commissioner could be Radoslaw Sikorski, a party colleague of Prime Minister Donald Tusk (both from the EPP) and the current Foreign Minister of Warsaw. In Lithuania, however, the clash is in the open between the president’s favorite candidate, Ingrida Simonyte, and the current Foreign Minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis. In Luxembourg, the derby is between the popular Christophe Hansen and the socialist Nicolas Schmit, and it seems that the former is ahead. Croatia is also expected to send the current Commissioner for Democracy and Demography, Dubravka Suica, to Brussels for a second term, but there is no official confirmation yet for this nomination either.

It is not clear whether the Greek government will keep its outgoing commissioner, Margaritis Schinas (who in the first von der Leyen College was responsible for the European Way of Life, and in the previous one was the spokesperson for President Jean-Claude Juncker), or will propose another. Similarly, France could choose to keep Thierry Breton (who ran the Internal Market) and Belgium Didier Reynders (current head of Justice), but both these countries, as well as Bulgaria, are currently in the process of forming a new government and therefore it is difficult to make predictions. For Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Malta, Portugal, Romania and Hungary, no firm names are yet known. The candidate from Valletta was supposed to be Chris Fearne, but he was recently engulfed in a scandal and is unlikely to continue the race. The nomination from Budapest seems to oscillate between the reappointment of the outgoing commissioner Olivér Várhelyi, very close to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, and the MEP Eniko Gyori

Next steps

The most complex part of the game begins now. Naturally, national governments all want to obtain the heaviest portfolio possible: traditionally, the most coveted are the economic ones (from Economy to Competition and Trade), delegations that will probably be contested between the largest states such as Italy and France, but which are also claimed by Ireland, Greece and Luxembourg, among others. The Belpaese could also aim for the new commissioner for the Mediterranean, in which Cyprus has already expressed interest, while other important portfolios, such as Agriculture and Enlargement, could end up in a Central-Eastern European state.

Now, to obtain a prestigious position, a respectable GDP is not enough, but it is also necessary to indicate a “strong” name. Not so much, or not only, someone with solid previous experience, but also someone who can fit well into the puzzle of the von der Leyen College 2.0. It seems that the president wants to repeat the experience of a Commission gender balancedso countries that propose female candidates could have an advantage. And then, obviously, there is the balance to be taken into account between the governments of the Twenty-seven on the one hand and the new political geography of the European Parliament, and the synthesis should lead to a community executive that is more markedly center-right than the previous one.

The goal, however, is to consolidate the team by the beginning of September, so that by the end of that month the commissioners can already take the hearings at the Eurochamber. Each will be “examined” by the parliamentary committee responsible for their portfolio, which will have the power to promote or reject them. In 2019, three candidates proposed by von der Leyen were rejected by the deputies: the Romanian Rovana Plumb, the Hungarian Laszlo Trocsanyi and the French Sylvie Goulard. Back in 2004, it was the turn of the Italian candidate proposed by the then Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, the Christian Democrat Rocco Buttiglione. For a commissioner candidate to “pass” the hearing, they must be positively evaluated by at least two-thirds of the deputies who questioned them. In the case of a simple majority, they are “sent back” and must take a second hearing. All of this within a rather complex procedure. If everything goes well, perhaps as early as October there could be a vote of confidence on the entire college, which will take place in the Strasbourg Plenary. The aim is to have the new Commission take office as early as November, or at the latest in December.