The predictions don’t smile on him but they aren’t always the favorites to win the games that count. Or at least this is what the leaders of the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) hope for, having reconfirmed their support for the candidacy of Olaf Scholz in the race for the elections for the Federal Chancellery.
After the withdrawal on Thursday of his only domestic rival, the hugely popular Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, the 66-year-old chancellor had a free field to run for a second term in these elections, organized after the breakdown of his coalition with the Greens and Liberals on November 6. A party congress is scheduled for January 11, when Scholz’s candidacy for the February 23 elections will be officially confirmed.
Low popularity
After the internal rivalries and turbulence of recent weeks “which certainly did not help”, SPD general secretary Matthias Miersch yesterday called on the party “to unite behind Scholz”.
The gap towards the opposition of the CDU/CSU popular led by Friedrich Merz is however notable. According to recent election polls, the Social Democrats are in third place, with about half the support of the Christian Democrat bloc (33 percent), and are also overtaken by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) which has a 18 percent of the votes.
The People’s Party do not deny that they view the chancellor’s candidacy with a certain relief. The decision “is positive for us”, underlined MP Mathias Middelberg, “Pistorius would have been more unpleasant for the CDU and the CSU”.
Olaf Scholz, the “face” of a fallen government marked by constant internal quarrels, is “probably the weakest and most unsuitable chancellor candidate that the SPD has ever presented”, ruled the German news site Der Spiegel. His coalition, in power since the end of 2021, was rocked by the dismissal of the liberal finance minister over differences that had become insurmountable on budget policy, in the midst of an industrial crisis in Europe’s largest economy.
The strategy
Despite the adverse predictions, neither the party nor its candidate show concern. “Scholzomat”, a nickname given to him for his monotone voice and his endless sentences, repeats with conviction that he will once again lead his party to victory.
Even in the previous 2021 elections he did not seem to be the candidate to focus on, but at the time he was able to take full advantage of the divisions in the conservative camp, which to date, however, appear decidedly more cohesive in a common front. What strategy should we adopt for the future electoral campaign? Present himself first and foremost as a man of moderation when it comes to militarily supporting Ukraine, in the hope of exploiting the deeply rooted pacifism among Germans since the Nazi horrors and a significant current of pro-Russian opinion.
According to a recent poll by public television Ard, 61% of respondents supported his decision not to supply Ukraine with Taurus missiles capable of striking deep into Russian territory. The veteran of German politics still has chances to play, already demonstrating on repeated occasions that he can beat the odds.
