Two avalanches several have affected the Friuli-Venezia Giulia and the Veneto: the Alpine Rescue intervened in Sella Nevea ea Casera Razzo for two avalanches which involved 6 people in total, one of whom was found lifeless after being overwhelmed by the snow. Accidents of this type – which occurred yesterday February 1st – are unfortunately not one novelty for our country: it is no coincidence that 94.5% of Italian municipalities are at risk from avalanches, landslides or floods. That’s why it’s important to know how to read a danger bulletinlike the official ones released by AINEVA (Interregional Association for coordination and documentation for problems relating to snow and avalanches) and know how to act based on the avalanche risk reported.
How to calculate the risk of avalanches like those in Friuli-Venezia Giulia
Whenever you undertake a mountain excursion, it is essential to consult the bulletins for the danger of avalanches. But how is this risk calculated? The assessment that is done follows a rigorous process – standardized across Europe through European Avalanche Danger Scale – which classifies the risk on cfive progressive levels:
- Rank 1 (Weak): The snow cover is generally well consolidated and stable. Detachment is only possible with heavy overloading at very few isolated points. Here they are avalanches they are spontaneous rare and small.
- Grade 2 (Moderate): The snow is moderately unstable on some steep slopes. The detachment can occur with strong overload (e.g. a group of skiers without distances), but no large avalanches are expected spontaneous.
- Rank 3 (Marked): It is the critical level, often defined as that of “difficult decisions”, given that in this range the most fatal accidents, since attendance is still possible but requires expert evaluation skills. The snowpack has moderate to weak consolidation on many steep slopes. Detachment is possible even with a slight overload (the passage of a single skier). At this level there are often obvious danger signs such as “whumpfs” (settling noises) and cracks in the covering.
- Rank 4 (Strong): The surface is weak on most slopes. The detachment of medium and large natural avalanches. Under these conditions, theactivity hiking and skiing is strongly limited.
- Rank 5 (Very Strong): The snow cover is unstable everywhere. Numerous are planned large natural avalanches which can reach the valley floor, threatening infrastructures and anthropic areas.
Among other things, this scale is not linear, but exponential: this means that the danger doubles (or triples, quadruples etc.) moving from one level to another. Consequently, grade 3, which is mid-scale, does not indicate “medium” danger, but a situation in which the risk of detachment it is concrete and frequent.
More specifically, this risk is calculated by analyzing three factors:
- Probability of detachment avalanches.
- Distribution of dangerous points.
- Dimensions and frequency of avalanches expected.
According to thelatest AINEVA bulletin published on February 2, 2026, the avalanche danger is marked (Grade 3, marked in orange) in most of the risk areas, as visible in the map below. Among the areas most involved are a large part of Piedmont (from the Monregalese Valleys to the Germanasca and Pellice Valleys and the Southern Lepontine Alps), the Aosta Valley (including the Cogne Valley) and part of Lombardy (Orobie Valtellinesi Alps). Moderate danger instead for the Como Prealps and weak for the Pavia Apennines and the Varesine Prealps.
The number of accidents caused by avalanches in Italy
So far, in the 2025/2026 season they have been registered 19 accidents, which resulted in a total of 12 victims: as emerges from the AINEVA database, the category most affected by avalanches is that of ski mountaineering (12 accidents per avalanche). This discipline, in fact, represents the largest portion of accidents and victims also for this year, followed bymountaineering (3 accidents), from off-piste (3) and fromhiking on foot or with snowshoes (1 accident).
As mentioned, a crucial piece of data concerns the correlation between the degree of danger and the number of accidents. Statistics, in fact, confirm that the majority of events involving people occur with Grare danger 3 (Marked). This often happens because we tend to underestimate the risk: with grades 4 or 5, frequenting the mountains drops drastically and activities are severely limited, with grades 1 or 2 the risk is objectively low. Grade 3, however, still indicates the possibility of frequenting the mountains, even if in reality it hides pitfalls that require excellent knowledge and a high ability to read the slope.
Looking at the historical trend of avalanche accidents, one thing emerges from the data decrease in people involved: if in the 2009/2010 season a peak was reached with 217 people swept away by an avalanche (with a total of 45 victims), in the last 3 seasons the average of the climbers involved was of 128, with one average of 16 victims per year.
To reduce the risk of being involved in an avalanche, the best advice remains that of cConsult the danger bulletins dailyalways following simple rules such as never venturing alone into the mountains, respecting the signs and indications on the slopes and avoiding crossing suspicious areas such as open slopes, gullies and leeward areas.
