After the Israeli attack started on the night of June 13 against the infrastructure and staff of the Iran nuclear program and against its military leaders, theRising Lion operation it turned into a real conventional war between non -neighboring countries. For days Tel Aviv and Tehran have attacked using ballistic missiles, drones and planes; At the moment the partial budget is almost 250 deaths in Iran and about thirty in Israel. In the event that, as a geopolitical pressure tool, Iran decides to close The Strait of Hormuzone of the most strategic maritime passages in the world, the consequences would be immediate and global: The price of oil would disappear vertiginouslyenergy trafficking would undergo serious slowdowns and there would be a risk of an international military escalation.
The Strait extends for about 560 kilometers and separates the Persian Gulf from that of theOman: from there passes about the 30% of world oilwith about 3 thousand ships who pass you every month.
In 5 days of air raids and attacks with drones, the Israeli army has already killed General Gholamal Rashid and above all Mohammad Bagherihead of the Iranian regular army and the highest authority of the country after the supreme guide, Ali Khamenei. Even the guards of the Islamic revolution have lost their commander in chief Hossein salami and that of intelligence Mohammad Kazemi. The strength quds (body of elite of the guards responsible for operations abroad) has lost his commander Esmail Qaani. At the moment the position of the Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei is not known, even if it is assumed that he was transferred to a safe location in his hometown, Mashhad.
A pressure tool for Tehran a Tel Aviv
In the Comparison between Iran and Israel It is evident that at the moment theIsraeli aviation now has aerial supremacy. On Monday 16 June, some spokesperson for the armed forces declared that they have the total control of the airspace above Tehran. The reasons are different: the scarce response due to the confusion of the military leaders after the losses of the high command these days, an fleet of obsolete combat planes and a system of aerial defenses that largely were sabotaged by the first raids of Israel and by clandestine operations of the Mossad, The Israeli intelligence service for abroad. For this reason, in comparison with Israel, Tehran could decide to support the ineffective military action a strategic move which would force the international community to press pressure on Tel Aviv because it interrupted the attacks: Close the Hormuz Strait to commercial traffic.
Because the Hormuz Strait is so important for the world economy
The Strait of Hormuzlocated between Oman and Iran, Connect the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. In its point of less width, the coast of the two countries is separated from a stretch of sea of just 34 kilometers. The whole north coast of the Persian Gulf belongs to Iran, while on the other side there are countries such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrein, Qatar and Oman, with different US military bases.
From this narrow they pass through Every day about 20 million barrelsnamely a fifth of the offer worldwide (especially that of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq and Iran), and more than A tenth of the gas In its liquid form, frozen and then embarked in the ports of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Given the passage of hundreds of ships every day, The Hormuz Strait is organized in navigation lanes regulate from a traffic separation scheme to avoid collisions between boats. Each lane, one in entrance and one out of the strait, is 3 kilometers wide. This delicate balance can be put in crisis very easily, if Iran decides to close the Strait with the Navy ships or attacking boats from countries considered hostile. During the day of Monday 16 Junemeanwhile, several boats in transit in the Strait have recorded a Increase in electromagnetic interference against their on -board instruments.
The possible repercussions
The most immediate repercussion would be theIncrease in the price of oil on financial markets. Second Jorge LeonRystad’s geopolitical analyst and former Officer of OPEC, this eventuality could grow up to 20 dollars the price per barrel. This scenario frightens a lot Europewho after the beginning of the war in Ukraine tried to free himself from his historical energy dependence towards Russia, often choosing the countries of the Gulf as new suppliers. Also the United States and the China they fear this eventuality and one possible militarization of the Strait of Hormuz. Washington has already asked for on several occasions that Israel stops hitting Iranian structures for the production of petrolium And natural gasas already happened on the night between 14 and 15 June, when several fuel deposits were attacked in Tehran and the South Pars gas deposit, in the port city of Kangan. Also Chinawho buys the 90% of the Iranian racing export under penalties, requested that the petroli are free to circulate In the Strait of Hormuz.
