cosa e effetto Dunning Kruger

What is the Dunning-Kruger effect, when inexperienced people think they know more than others

Have you ever listened to someone speak with extreme confidence about a topic, even though it was clear that they didn’t know much about it? Or perhaps you have found yourself thinking you know more than you actually do about a certain issue? This phenomenon has a name: Dunning-Kruger effect. It is that mechanism whereby those who know little about a certain issue or discipline tend to overestimate themselves, while, it can happen, that those who really have knowledge on a topic often end up doubting their abilities. Let’s understand better how it works.

How the Dunning-Kruger effect works

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a psychological phenomenon which occurs when people with little knowledge or skills on a certain one theme or scope tend to overestimate yourself significantly compared to their actual preparation or compared to other people. According to socio-psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger, this happens because, to recognize their own limits in a certain field, you must have at least basic competence in that area. Those who do not reach this minimum threshold are not aware of their shortcomings and therefore tend to think they are more competent than they actually are.

Dunning and Kruger’s study

In 1999, Dunning and Kruger published a study entitled Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessmentsin which they analyzed the skills of four groups of young people on three fronts: humor, logic and grammar. The results obtained showed that those with limited skills tended to overestimate their abilities compared to the defined evaluation parameters. Furthermore, these people struggled to recognize the talents of others and to make an accurate assessment of their own performance in comparison to that of others.

When we talk about the Dunning-Kruger effect, we often refer to the Dunning-Kruger curve: the trend of the curve shows us, paradoxically, that as we become more competent we realize our limitations more easily or our shortcomings (thanks to in-depth knowledge of a topic or training we tend to develop some cognitive skills that allow us to notice them). In other words, as the philosopher Socrates would have said, the more you know something about a topic, the more it “knows that it doesn’t know”.

Initially people demonstrate excessive confidence in their abilities, which can result in rash and potentially harmful decisions. At this stage, individuals may not be aware of their inadequacy due to lack of knowledge or experience.

During the defined phase “valley of humility”people begin to become aware of their shortcomings, leading to reflection on their level of “excessive confidence”. This can be seen as a period of personal growth that encourages the acquisition of new skills.

In the phase of “climb of wisdom”the individual develops greater competence and confidence begins to rise, although it is now supported by a more realistic analysis of one’s knowledge and skills.

Finally, in the “plain of competence”the person has a clear and more realistic understanding of their abilities.

It is crucial to note that this process illustrates a general trend rather than a fixed rule. Not all beginners in a field have an inflated view of their own skills, just as not all experts tend to underestimate themselves.

Practical examples of the Dunning-Kruger effect in everyday life

Dunning and Kruger highlighted that people do not always overestimate their abilities; this eventuality is influenced by “field” under consideration and from minimum level of knowledge required by the situation. For example, most individuals who are good at golf would never dream of getting on par with a champion like Tiger Woods.

Other studies have shown that the Dunning-Kruger effect occurs in various fields, such as economics, medicine and politics. A study conducted in 2018 found that Americans with limited political knowledge overestimate their political knowledge, especially when their identification with a political faction is strong.

Another example of the Dunning-Kruger effect in everyday life would be a novice in the financial field who believes he has the laws of the stock market under his thumb and ends up making impulsive decisions, resulting in serious losses. Another case refers to driving: many perceive themselves as excellent drivers, while in reality a significant percentage of them do not possess the skills necessary to prevent accidents.

Dunning and Kruger’s experiments have transformed our way of understanding self-perception and self-evaluation, showing us that to counter the risks linked to this cognitive distortion it is essential to promote continuous training and cultivate greater self-awareness about this cognitive bias.

Bibliography

Duignan, Brian. “Dunning-Kruger effect”. Encyclopedia Britannica, 9 Sep. 2024, https://www.britannica.com/science/Dunning-Kruger-effect. Accessed 1 October 2024.

Dunning, D., & Kruger, J. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one’s own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(6), 1121-1134.

DeJoy, D. M. (1992). An examination of gender differences in traffic accident risk perception. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 24(3), 237-246.

Motta, M., Callaghan, T., & Sylvester, S. (2020). Knowing less but presuming more: Dunning-Kruger effects and the endorsement of anti-vaccine policy attitudes. Social Science & Medicine, 257, 112015.

Pennycook, G., & Rand, D. G. (2019). Fighting misinformation on social media using crowdsourced judgments of news source quality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(7), 2521-2526.