There is only one man in command, he has red hair and in the last fourteen months of world tennis he has drawn a blank. Jannik Sinner’s 2024 is already in the history books, however in tennis one of the most important unwritten rules is that stopping is equivalent to falling. At the top of the world since last June 10th, the blue has a crosshairs on his back: from the usual suspects to some old foxes, without forgetting the new ones who are advancing, there are many who wish to take the crown from him in 2025.

Carlos Alcaraz wants it back (last time at the top on 10 September 2023), two Slams this year but too many ups and downs for someone who possesses all that talent. He would like to experience the thrill of looking down on everyone at least once at Alexander Zverev, probably the best player of the last ten years not to have won a single Slam. Medvedev will hardly be able to interfere in the race for number 1; it is more likely that the Russian will be content to reduce the gap with the Italian and the Spaniard, perhaps attempting some exploits in the two hard-court majors. Djokovic coached by Murray, on paper, is an Oscar-worthy film, but as Brad Gilbert says, tennis is played on clay, grass and hard court, but not on paper. A motivated Nole can still beat anyone. Jannik and Carlitos also in the best of five sets? Difficult, but possible.

Today, it is unimaginable to expect feats of similar magnitude (ranking record or Slam victory) from the other top ten. Life is capricious, but not enough to lift Fritz, Ruud, Rublev, De Minaur or Dimitrov so high.

Sinner-Alcaraz duel

According to Mats Wilander, an incredible strategist on the field (seven majors on the board), decidedly less infallible in his predictions, 2025 could be the year in which one of Sinner or Alcaraz will manage to achieve the feat of winning all four major tournaments Slam. The last time it happened was in 1969, when Rod Laver buzzed.

Prophecies aside, good thing that Wada will still be a tug of war between those who, in 2024, won the Australian Open and US Open (Sinner) and those who won Roland Garros and Wimbledon (Alcaraz). Both in search of tennis immortality, the two have raised their levels so much that a single season cannot be enough to reach them.

The Spaniard from Murcia will try to achieve a historic result already in Melbourne: achieving the Career Grand Slam before the age of 22, that is, having won all four Slam tournaments at least once in his career, a feat achieved since tennis has existed, in singles, only eight men and ten women.

Jannik has a score to settle with Paris and London. Right between the Philippe Chatrier and the Center Court, where great players become legends, the Italian will try to improve those two or three details that have prevented him from reaching the final in the European Slams so far. He arrived at the last Roland Garros with little preparation due to the hip discomfort, at Wimbledon with few hours of sleep and a lot of anxiety about the doping affair.

Sinner has not defeated Alcaraz in the Slams since London 2022, while the Ferrero student won all three matches played in 2024 (Indian Wells, Roland Garros and Beijing). Yet, the feeling is that, under equal conditions, the Italian knows how to manage and win the decisive points of a match better than the Spaniard. Will it be enough to confirm itself at the top of the world again next year? If it doesn’t rain bricks in Lausanne, Jannik will still be the man to beat.

The new generation of phenomena

Those who seem to have world-class potential in their arms and in their heads are still at the back. I’m talking about Rune, Draper, Musetti, Fils, Shelton and baby Fonseca.

Rune, who had impressed in 2022 when he won Paris Bercy by beating Djokovic in the final, has wrapped himself up by changing more coaches than Zamparini, the historic president of Palermo. Draper is just back from his first season in the top 100 (he then finished at number 15) and very few have missed the apprenticeship at the highest levels. It’s difficult not to see him in the top ten for a couple of years, but it will take time to find him consistently in the final stages of the Slams. The same goes for the Frenchman Arthur Fils: he turned 20 in July and is already in the top 20. This year he beat Zverev in the final in Hamburg and, after the disappointing Olympics (defeated on his debut by our Arnaldi), he established himself in Tokyo by overcoming among others Rune and Shelton. An authoritative candidate for the top ten of the future, his evolution remains an unknown: will he be a player who will compete for the Slams or to annoy the older players every now and then?

From May to August Lorenzo Musetti showed flashes of a tennis that no longer exists. The semi-final at Wimbledon and the Olympic bronze represented the highest peaks, but the ability to win dirty matches is the signal that was most missing. If what he has inside him is at least equal to his class, then Simone Tartarini will bring it out.

Pick up the phone, Ben Shelton is waiting for you. The year of confirmation, after the semi-final in New York in 2023, was up and down, albeit with some magic. He has only beaten one top ten (Rublev in October) and to put the top players in difficulty he will have to build a more solid game: always play all-in Only with serve and forehand in the course of four hours of match can you go well how many times in the course of a season? Not enough to make the top 5.

Great interest, especially after the victory at the Next Gen ATP Finals in Riyadh, for Joao Fonseca born in 2006. Champion at the US Open Junior in 2023 (when he defeated the Italian Federico Cinà in the semifinal), Fonseca is nicknamed “little Sinner” in Brazil. Making a name for yourself in a major among adults is a very different thing. To find a junior Slam winner capable of winning a major title even among the greats we have to go back a long way. Until 2000 for the Australian Open (Roddick, then winner of the 2003 US Open), 2005 for Roland Garros (Cilic, Slam champion at the 2015 US Open), even 1998 for Wimbledon (His Majesty Roger Federer, who started the his dominion always on the lawns in 2003) and in 2004 for the US Open (Murray, who won the first of his three great titles again in New York in 2012).

On his side, the Brazilian also has the month of birth that he shares with four Martians. I don’t believe in the cabal and I’ve never been fascinated by astrology, but if Rod Laver, Roger Federer, Pete Sampras and Jannik Sinner (47 Slams in total) were born in August, you can be sure that the god of tennis, at least, he is not against you.

Sinner-Wada: last act

We all know how much tennis is a sport for loners, but only 29 people from 1973 to today know the joys and torments of being up there: number 1 is, in fact, the loneliest of all and Jannik learned this all too well in during the last season.

73 victories and 6 defeats, and a haul of eight titles including two Slams and the Nitto ATP Finals, without forgetting his second Davis Cup: if there hadn’t been that Clostebol-based ointment or the dullness of Wada, so would Sinner have made anything else in this 2024 which is coming to an end?

More important than in the past, now is understanding what could happen in the coming months. After the recent appointment of two out of three members of the TAS arbitration panel (the Israeli Ken Lalo wanted by Wada and the American Jeffrey Benz chosen by Sinner’s lawyers), it is clear that the trial will take place after the Australian Open and most likely not before March. A couple of weeks ago Olivier Niggli, director general of Wada, also returned to the case and explained why the world anti-doping agency decided to appeal against the acquittal of the Italian tennis player due to the total absence of intent or negligence. According to Wada, the central theme of the process is that “there is still an athlete’s responsibility towards those around him. We do not dispute the fact that it may have been contamination, but we believe that the application of the rules does not correspond to the jurisprudence”.

The risk, if the CAS opted for this interpretation, would be at best a one-year suspension. Not a “tennis” death sentence, but certainly a disproportionate sentence compared to the most recent cases linked to this substance and, more generally, to Sinner’s possible responsibilities towards the actions of his staff. An unexpected hard punch also by virtue of the statements of the International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA), which leave no room for misunderstandings: “The trial was conducted according to the guidelines of the World Anti-Doping Code”.

No one, however, will ever explain to us Wada’s change of direction, which first buried the story of the 23 Chinese swimmers who tested positive but acquitted in their home garden and then opted to flex their muscles against the ATP number 1.

Sinner will have to live with all this for at least another two months. The boy is mature, has broad shoulders and two fantastic coaches in Vagnozzi and Cahill, but it will be increasingly difficult not to be influenced.