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What we know about the 2024 YR4 asteroid that could hit the earth in 2032: how real are the risks?

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The Atlas telescopes system in Chile discovered the asteroid on December 27, 2024 2024 YR4a rocky body of the diameter between 40 and 100 meters Ranked as “Near Earth Object” because of the proximity between its orbit and the terrestrial one. According to (few) data collected so far, 2024 YR4 has An estimated probability of 1 out of 83 to hit the earth on 22 December 2032. He currently brings 2024 YR4 to the top of the list of the most dangerous asteroids drawn up by the center of the European Space Agency which deals with the potentially dangerous objects that pass near the Earth. The combination of probability of impact and energy released by the asteroid assign him a value 3 (out of 10) on the Turin scalea scale used by astronomers for categorize the risk of impact associated with objects close to the earth, such as asteroids and comets.

Before panic, however, it is good to specify that this is one preliminary estimate based on the few data collected so far and the Probability could be reviewed downwards In the next few days, as already happened in the past: think of the case of the Asteroid Apophis. It is therefore important to take these numbers for what they are, that is, not yet precise estimates, and wait for astronomers to perform other observations and collect other data. The discovery of 2024 YR4 still pay attention to the‘importance of computerized monitoring systems of the skywho discover dozens of new objects every night, and on preparing for any missions to deviate asteroids on a collision course with the earth, as attempted by the Dart of NASA probe.

How concrete is the risk of impact?

From the preliminary data in possession of astronomers, theAsteroid 2024 YR4 has one probability of 1.2% to hit the earth on 22 December 2032about an like probability out of 83. 2024 YR4 has already passed near our planet on our planet December 25, 2024a few days before his discovery, and the December 17, 20284 years before the expected impact date.

According to the calculations of the astronomers, if 2024 YR4 had to hit the earth would release an energy equal to hundreds of times that of the Hiroshima atomic bombraising a large area on the ground and creating a crater of about 1 km in diameter. All this may seem alarming, but it is good to specify that the impact forecast is based on data collected for a period of just over a monthinsufficient to have a precise measure of the orbital parameters of the object. Just think that currently the distance expected between 2024 YR4 and the Earth on 22 December 2032 has anuncertainty of 1.55 million kmwhich is absolutely enormous and does not allow to make any accurate forecast. So we repeat it: At the moment there is no certainty And only with new data can we know something more.

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Image that shows the orbit (in blue) of the 2024 YR4 asteroid. The asteroid is currently located between the Earth and Mars, 40 million km from our planet. Credit: ESA

What we know about the Asteroid 2024 YR4

THE‘Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovery from the Atlas monitoring system in Chile the December 27, 2024. It belongs to the category of Apollo type asteroidsthat is, those who cross the terrestrial orbit. Preliminary estimates indicate that the object has a diameter between 40 and 100 metersa fairly wide margin of uncertainty that can make the difference between an asteroid that explodes in the low atmosphere and one capable of impacting with the earth’s surface by releases energies hundreds of times those of an atomic bomb. Currently, 2024 YR4 is located between the Earth and Mars, a 40 million km from our planetin the direction of the cancer constellation. It it is not visible to the naked eye Since its small size and composition make it a very weak object that only dedicated telescopes are able to photograph.