The study of the psychological profiles of the prominent figures is normal in the field of military intelligence: in fact I think I have repeatedly tried to explain the figure and objectives of Vladimir Putin. In the case of the American president, of course, there are no profiles produced in the western military, as a citizen and leader of a friendly and ally country.

What are Trump and Putin look like

My impression is that Trump is fundamentally endowed with an extremely pronounced ego, of a huge ambition to be remembered as a great of American history, and of a security in his abilities deriving from his undeniable personal successes in drawing the world that it surrounded according to his personal needs.

The tools it uses to achieve his purposes are essentially an undeniable charisma and an extreme ability to move with unscrupulousness in the financial world, according to the written and above all unwritten rules of this world, which has learned to interpret and possibly distort to one’s own exclusive advantage. In common with Putin it has unscrupulousness and lack of scruples, but unlike Putin it has substantially economic and social objectives rather than political and military: he does not care about the political-military control of the world, but rather the economic one and financial, in order to avoid the cost of direct control that it does not interest him.

Trump and Putin have the same weak point

If those like Putin do not have friends, but only accomplices to blackmail and enemies to destroy, Trump has only potential customers to bland and potential opponents to intimidate. Both, however, have the same weak point: the presumption of infallibility.

Trump places himself as a mediator because this serves his purpose, which basically must guarantee him a return. To make the mediator it must be – or at least appear – equidistant, and therefore you do not have problems leaving the western/Ukrainian field and place yourself in the middle. Since he has already spoken several times with Zelensky, he also has to speak with Putin, and to talk to Putin without making him lose his face he must allisciato him a little here his somewhat crazy statements, honey, dwarves and dancers by Riyadh. Both us and Zelensky should understand it and keep the nerves a little more firm.

Having said that, however, we must ask ourselves what we propose to get. Because, taking his statements and sorceress doctrine (“Make America Great Again”), he should not import much: after all he is also gaining a bit without the costs very much; If he really cared about Zero, he would say to Europe to get by and would reset the help. He doesn’t: why? Indeed, it relaunches and throws the weight of the American prestige and its staff in a negotiation that so far no one, not even India, Turkey, China, the Pope or the UN wanted to take in hand, and therefore create a situation in which it could suddenly have a lot To lose if the negotiation should fail (at least in terms of prestige, which for him as we have seen is fundamental). Why?

The question is complicated by observing the war situation: it is in dynamic balance, in which both contenders are exhausted and neither of them is in a position to win, but not even to collapse shortly. Indeed, keeping the current situation, probably the Russian economic collapse would arrive before the Ukrainian one, even if Kiev was supported only by Europe (but also by Canada, Japan and others). Trump’s institutional experts know very well: the point is whether he listens to them or not.

Two scenarios for Ukraine

So we have two possible cases, depending on that Trump is aware of reality on the field or that he has his personal beliefs that he has always entrusted and that they have often given him reason in finance and in politics.

First case. Trump is building a diplomatic trap, making the negotiation attractive for Putin who is committed. Except then presenting an indigestible plan to both sides (as it is actually predictable), which however Putin refuses more clearly than Zelensky. At this point Trump would go to the already outlined “Piano”, downloading a large quantity of American military material in reserve, obsolete for the USA (and even expensive to maintain and of which he probably would like to free himself), but very advanced for the theater of war Ukrainian. Material that instead of delivering for free would make us pay for Europe.

Net gain for the USA, both economic and prestigious, opa on the natural resources of the entire Ukrainian, and probable collapse of the Russian regime, the only strategic rival at the nuclear level of America, which would place the USA in a nuclear chess position on the China (which on the Russian strategic umbrella counts in the global comparison with America, being its lower nuclear arsenal and level of the French one). It would be a full success, but it would be achieved more according to the doctrine “neocon” than that sorceress.

Second case. Trump is playing all the other players, but one in particular, who is not Russia. Reasoning in financial terms (the only ones who understand and conceive), Russia is not a serious opponent, indeed it is a sort of “environmental discomfort” useful for selling American material (which Trump believes blindly to be the best in the world) for whom if He wants to defend it. Ukraine in turn is nothing more than an object of merchanting from which it intends to squeeze the maximum.

Trump’s real goal is Europe

The real goal is the EU, whose organization and the same concept (collaborative and evolutionary) contrasts with his world view, where there are only him, his potential customers, opponents and commercial objects, and excludes every aspect Ethical such as “friendship” or “loyalty” relegated to pure hypocrisy in dialogue between nations.

In this Trumpian world, the European Union is the anomaly to be corrected, and above all the euro is the problem to be eliminated (remember its fury at the idea of ​​a BRICS coin? The euro is much more dangerous because it exists and He is affirmed, and is the only true rival of the dollar in future world trade). Just as the war in Ukraine who, according to his ideas, would make better to ignore, the EU he despises so openly (it doesn’t matter if right or not) it should be completely ignored by him; Instead in both cases Trump engaged in depth, and the reason would be to disarticulate the EU before it becomes a dangerous competitor, which Russia will never be. This clearly short -sighted vision according to our point of view, however, would be perfectly in line with sorceress ideology.

Trump’s plan for the elections in Germany: “Create chaos”

Now, both scenarios are perfectly reasonable and would bring enormous advantages to America (in my opinion especially the first, but I am not Trump) and prestige to its president. The problem, however, is that Trump oversees himself. He is convinced of American indispensability in the support of Ukraine, and therefore believes he has an invincible blackmail on Europe and Ukraine, but it is not so: Zelensky can very well say no he too, precisely because the military situation is not At all such as to force him to the ropes: without Trump’s initiative, the war would continue with his friction for many months, and both contenders believe they can afford it.

In my opinion, Ukraine even more than Russia, thanks to the economic support guaranteed by Europe (UK including), Canada, Japan and all the minor allies of the West from which Trump could be brought out. Trump, however, firmly believes that this is simply impossible, and that without America Ukraine would be condemned behind America. This I believe is the true substance of the speech: a tangled situation.