September 1, 2024 is a sadly historic date for Europe. Björn Höcke, a German politician with openly Hitlerian sympathies, has dragged the Alternative for Germany party to first place in Thuringia, a small state-region in East Germany. In numerical terms, a marginal result, yet one with an impact from a national perspective. In Saxony, the AfD stopped in second place, a few percentage points behind the Christian Democrats. The other convoy of the European locomotive is not doing any better. In France, Emmanuel Macron took over 50 days to solve a Rubik’s cube that he stumbled into by himself. Having taken refuge in unexpected early elections to avoid a triumph for Marine Le Pen’s far-right, he then precluded the nomination of Lucie Castets as prime minister, indicated by the left-wing coalition that emerged from the polls with the largest number of deputies. Now the Elysée has surprisingly placed Michel Barnier in Matignon, a right-wing name that Le Pen likes all things considered. A paradoxical strategy to say the least.

Better to command than to govern

It is not a given that the AfD will actually succeed in governing Thuringia, since it would require an art of compromise that is difficult to imagine for a maximalist like Höcke. The dark soul of the AfD seems to be aiming directly at the national elections. Ousting the current socialist chancellor Olaf Scholz seems an easier task than seriously governing the more than two million discontented people of the small German federal state. The Germany that is the driving force of Europe, the one led by the unbreakable Angela Merkel, is now unrecognizable. In addition to losing ground on the economic level, it is turning into a dangerous laboratory of new fascisms.

Far-right wins in Germany, but new anti-migrant left could go to government

“Deportation, deportation!” shout the convinced supporters of Höcke, who embodies the most extreme wing of the AfD. In his program there are no great economic recipes or confidence in an alternative model. As underlined by German television DWHöcke’s top priority is the “fight against a diverse society,” calling migration “the mother of all crises.” Scholz called for a “cordon sanitaire” to prevent the AfD from taking power in Thuringia. A recipe that has worked in the past, except that this time, the coexistence of the centrists of the CDU and BsW, the radical left party founded by Sara Wagenknecht, seems unlikely. She also relies on a bullying anti-immigrant rhetoric, strangely always first at the top of the list of “enemies.”

Macron’s paradoxes

In France, in July, a large portion of the population voted against the Bardella-Le Pen duo. The “sanitary cordon” invoked by Macron worked at the polls, but proved weak and confused in the halls of power. The one who is opening the doors to the Rassemblement National is ending up being the French president himself, who, in order to avoid a left-wing government, has appointed a prime minister who could obtain the support of the extreme right. Paradoxes of centrism.

The cordon sanitaire, that method that should unite democratic forces to prevent the rise to power of neo-fascist and neo-Nazi movements, had held up so far both in Paris and Berlin. This wall is now showing its cracks and risks giving way there too to a new ultra-conservative nationalism. Not even the billions of the Next Generation Eu (PNRR in our country) paid by the coffers of the European Union have been enough to calm that mix of fears, anxieties and anger that is circulating on the continent. From a marginal virus, the movements that today call themselves identitarians and sovereignists (but which are only the new dress of fascism, as noted EU Observer) are becoming pandemic. What is the vaccine? Is there really one?

Fear of the unknown

As the American author Mark Manson points out, both in the life of individuals and in communities, what matters is being able to tolerate and deal with uncertainty. And Europe currently offers plenty of it. “When fear of the unknown spreads throughout an entire culture, people tend to resort to dogmatism and authoritarianism. Cultures that fear the unknown and crave more certainty tend to be more corrupt, less tolerant of dissenting ideas and less trusting than cultures that are more comfortable with uncertainty”, writes Manson in one of his articles, citing research by Ezster Nova. “In practice, if an entire society collectively fears the unknown, it will submit to authority and not create problems”, concludes the author. Rather than mild invocations of anti-fascism and refined strategies for political agreements, European democratic parties will have to think about how to reduce the unknown that surrounds us, reinvigorating confidence rather than terrorizing us with anxiety and fear.