A low profile and not yet very well known but already starting to be talked about. Karol Nawrocki, 41 years old, historian and currently director of the Institute for National Remembrance in Poland (Ipn), has been designated by the conservative Law and Justice party (Pis) as a candidate for the next presidential elections, expected in the spring of 2025.
The choice of the party that sits in Strasbourg alongside the Brothers of Italy on the benches of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group fell on a person who has never held government positions. In 2017 he was appointed head of the Museum for the Second World War in Gdansk and in 2021 director of the Institute where he currently holds the office.
Choice that smacks of déjà-vu
With the second mandate of the incumbent president, Andrzej Duda of the Pis, expiring and the constitutional limit that prevents a third mandate, the party has turned its support to a not very well-known profile, hoping to be able to repeat the result obtained in 2015, when opting for the semi-unknown MEP Duda he managed to claim victory for two consecutive terms.
Officially, Nawrocki will run as an independent candidate, but he enjoys the full support of PiS. This structure is due to legal rules that prohibit the director of the IPN from being a member of a political party or from carrying out activities incompatible with the office.
PiS “decided to nominate a non-partisan candidate, an independent candidate, a candidate that many of our militants do not know well,” leader Jarosław Kaczyński explained during a congress in Krakow. “Our decision was determined by the personal merits of Nawrocki but also by the fact that today we have an internal war. The Polish-Polish war,” Kaczyński said, referring to the permanent conflicts between Prime Minister Donald Tusk, leader of the People’s Platform civic, and the PiS.
The future scenario
The electoral scenario is already well outlined and will see the mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski as the main contender for the office, who on Saturday won the primaries of the ruling Civic Coalition (KO) party, the alliance of which Prime Minister Tusk is a member and X joked about his choice of PiS rivals: “Even within PiS there is a shortage of suitable candidates, and no wonder.”
For PiS, maintaining the presidency is crucial after losing power in the 2023 parliamentary elections, as it would allow the party to still exert influence on the government and block laws through the presidential veto. For the same reason, it is crucial for Tusk’s governing coalition to win the presidency, eliminating the obstacle of a president who poses vetoes and prevents the implementation of his policies, including the restoration of judicial independence, a key element for unlock European funds destined for Poland.
The watershed theme of these presidential elections will certainly be that of national security, at a time when the conflict in neighboring Ukraine seems to be intensifying more and more.
