It seemed destined to remain on the fringes of French politics until 2027, but Marine Le Pen has silently reclaimed the scepter of France in her own way. This was clear when the great enigma of the French summer was solved on September 5. At the head of the transalpine government comes a man with long experience and who enjoys the trust of Europe: Michel Barnier. The name came somewhat surprisingly from President Emmanuel Macron, after the hypotheses of Bernard Cazeneuve (former socialist) and Xavier Betrand (right) had been burned. In the streets of Paris and the corridors of the National Assembly, many think that the tenant of the Elysée has in fact been dethroned and that the prime minister at this point will have to respond more to the ultimatums of the far right than to the centrists of the presidential party Renaissance.
The leader of the Rassemblement National (RN), who gave Barnier a tacit approval, has managed to become the swing vote in politics across the Alps. From triumphant in the European elections in June to a major loser in the national elections in July (only a third place for her coalition, but with the single largest party in terms of elected representatives), Le Pen thus returns to the forefront and takes away from the left the influence on the second most important office in France.
Who is Prime Minister Michel Barnier?
Michel Barnier, after a long and solid political career at home, has become a protagonist at European level with his appointment as chief negotiator for Brexit. The representative of the European People’s Party boasts numerous contacts in Brussels, especially in the DGs that count at an economic level. The President of the Commission Ursula von der Leyen immediately applauded his appointment and expects good cooperation. Despite some Eurosceptic outbursts in recent times, particularly on the subject of migration and the role of the Court of Justice of the EU, Barnier enjoys greater popularity in Brussels than in Paris. The green light from the Rassemblement National would have come thanks to his ability to dialogue. Small inconvenience: this means that the success of his government will depend to a large extent on the far-right party chaired by Jordan Bardella.
Le Pen’s influence on Barnier’s nomination
Le Pen’s influence would have been felt during the last week of negotiations with the Elysée. After the total rejection of the former socialist Cazeneuve, hindered by his own former party colleagues, RN also excluded Xavier Bertrand from the game. The leader of the Republicans, who seemed to have a clear advantage once Macron had opted for a right-wing prime minister, would have been rejected because in the past he had openly opposed the Le Pen clan. Following this immediate rejection, the name of Barnier suddenly appeared. A “fossil”, according to the far-right party leaders, but at least capable of “respecting the different political forces and speaking with the Rassemblement National”, according to Le Pen.
The balancing act of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella
Barnier will have to show his ability to compromise and to manage the confusing mix of the far right, the right and Macron’s centrists. The latter, who had worked hard during the call to the polls to prevent Le Pen’s rise to power, would be quite worried about this sharp turn of events by their leader that ends up favoring the Rassemblement National. The main issue in France is the budget, which should be approved by October 1st. But before that, Barnier needs the votes of the National Assembly. Jordan Bardella said that, in view of the vote, “he will judge his general policy speech on the documents”. Not a real “yes”, but not a dry “no” either.
According to some analysts, the strategy of the leader of Neuilly-sur-Seine could be to let the government vegetate without ever openly supporting it, except to launch a harsh attack on Macron in view of the 2027 presidential elections. The New Popular Front, the coalition that united the radical left, communists, socialists and ecologists, on the other hand, came up empty-handed. Macron denied them any chance of governing, despite being the coalition with the largest number of deputies after July 7. They will be the main opposition force to Barnier. After such a snub from the president who appointed him, they will not leave him an easy life.
