L’Iran could really attack militarily Israel in the next few hours or days? This is what seems to emerge from the statements officials of the two States, from the indications of theintelligence of countries like the United States of America and the United Kingdomand from a very long list of clues emerged between the end of July and the beginning of August 2024. In particular, we refer to the appeals of several states, including Italy, to leave Israel, Lebanon and Iran as soon as possible, and to flight blocking of many airlines bound for Israel and Lebanon. The geopolitical rivalry between Iran and Israel in the Middle East is long-standing and has already resulted in several clashes, the most notable of which occurred on the night of April 13-14, 2024.
At this stage Iran may want to attack Israel as a response to theassassination of Ismail Haniyeh (July 31, 2024), political leader of Hamaswho was in Iran to attend the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian president. He would probably be supported by other Middle Eastern actors, such as the Lebanese political-military group Hezbollahpro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria and the Houthis in Yemen. In defense of the possible launch of ballistic missiles, rockets and drones towards Israel, Israeli anti-missile systems, such as Iron Dome and Arrow 3, would intervene, and powers such as the USA and the UK would deploy. The possible attack could lead to aescalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to embrace the entire Middle East.
Warning: the Israeli-Palestinian issue is extremely complex and delicate and we are aware that any type of summary risks omitting information; therefore this article should be seen in the context of the contents that we have proposed and that we will propose in the coming days. We therefore invite you not to miss them: you can find everything in the Israel-Palestine War category of our site. Know that our aim is to make the geopolitical situation understood with maximum neutrality and stimulate interest in further insights.
Possible Causes of Iran’s Attack on Israel
Why might Iran want to attack Israel in the next few hours or days? For a main reason: On July 31, 2024, Israel killed inside the Iranian borders, during the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian president, the political leader of the Palestinian organization Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh. Hamas is an ally of Iran and is the main political-military group that Israel is fighting inside the Gaza Strip, which Israel invaded after the attack on October 7, 2023, unfortunately leading to tens of thousands of civilian casualtiesincluding many children. The Israeli raid in Iran has gone against international law and Haniyeh’s death is a hard blow to the possibilities of truce in Palestine. Iran would therefore like fight back Israel, taking revenge for the murder committed on its soil.
Statements and clues that foreshadow the attack
The possibility of an Iranian attack happening has been declared by the administrations of Iran, Israel and Lebanon themselves, as well as being reported by intelligence services of Western powers such as the United States of America and the United Kingdom. Signs that something big might actually happen have also been the Calls to return from Israel, Lebanon and Iran (or not to go there) launched by numerous countries, including Italy. There have also been numerous airline companies from all over the world who have been there since the end of July suspended its flights for the region (ranging from United Airlines to British Airways, from Air India to ITA Airways).
The diplomatic attempt of the United States of America
According to some rumours, the United States They would have tried to avert the Iranian attack by sending a delegation to Iran in recent days. They would have promised in exchange a resumption of negotiations on the Iranian civil nuclear and a reduction of some economic sanctions against the Ayatollahs’ regime and would have provided the names of some Mossad agentsthe Israeli secret service, who allegedly participated in the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. The US has underlined how far the Biden administration is from the actions of Benjamin Netanyahu and wants to prevent a possible attack by Iran from further strengthening its political position, also leading to aescalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict throughout the Middle East.
How could it hit Iran? The main scenario
What kind of attack could Iran do against Israel?main hypothesis is that a may occur launch of ballistic missiles, rockets and drones starting not only from Iran, but also from other regions of the Middle East, in particular fromIraq and from the Syriawhere there are pro-Iranian militias, from South Lebanonparticularly by the Hezbollah organization, one of whose military commanders was recently killed by Israel, and also by the Yemenby the political and military group of the Houthis. Israel could defend itself with its anti-missile systems and with the help of the US, UK and perhaps other countries.
The Possible Consequences of an Attack on Israel
If Iran’s attack on Israel were to actually happen (in absolute terms the hope is that it will not happen), the lesser of two evils could be a “piloted/declared” attack by Iran and its allies, to which Israel could perhaps respond in a precise and timely manner. This would be a way for the various contenders not to lose face from an international point of view. If, however, it were a question of deliberate attackit is likely that Israel could in turn respond, but at the risk of extending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to many other areas of the Middle East. There would be no risk, at least at this time, that the whole thing could lead to a third world war.
