Many of us are struggling with reservations for summer holidaysor have already done so in recent weeks, despite growing concerns about possible cancellations, fluctuating prices and questions about how flight scheduling will actually remain configured over the course of the summer.
Airlines around the world, including European ones, are facing their biggest challenge since the COVID-19 pandemic with the Strait of Hormuz blockade, trying to offset the increase in fuel costs (among the highest operating expense items for carriers) by increasing prices, including baggage prices, and canceling many flights: in the month of May alone, in the last few hours, 12 thousand flights have already been canceled in advance, for a total of 2 million seats.
What does it mean, what are the prospects for the summer and should we really be worried?
Why and which companies are canceling flights now
According to an analysis by the specialized company Cirium (one of the main global references for data on the aviation sector), reported in the newspaper Financial Times, airlines have removed 12,000 flights from the original programming of May 2026, for a total of approx 2 million fewer places. They are not last minute cancellations, as happens for example when there is a strike or particularly adverse weather conditions, but decisions taken in advance, based on economic calculations which also concern fuel costs.
These numbers are better understood however by evaluating them in proportion: there are commercial flights that take place every day in the world around 100 thousand. The 12,000 canceled flights are spread over the entire month of May and therefore correspond to less than 400 per day, on a global scale, but we will have to see in perspective. May is a bridge month: by sacrificing and canceling the least profitable flights today, in which the maximum capacity is not reached, the companies are trying to save millions of liters of kerosene, to try to guarantee operations in July and August.
The companies that reduced flights the most were Lufthansaa German company, which announced the cancellation of 20,000 flights until October, 4,000 in May (with – 350 thousand seats); Turkish Airlineswith 3,000 cancellations in May alone (-500 thousand places), and Air Chinawhich mainly cut internal connections (-2,500 flights and -450 thousand seats). In overall numbers, the total number of seats available in May fell from 132 million in April to 130 million in May, a reduction contained in percentage, but distributed very unequally among the routes.Air France, KLM And Finnair instead they have surcharges on fuel and increased the cost of tickets, while United Airlines reduced flights at less popular times between April and September 2026 by 3%.
Fuel has almost doubled in price due to the war in the Middle East
The price of jet fuel (i.e. the kerosene used by airplanes) it has increased by 84% since the beginning of the war in the Middle East last February 28, almost doubled. Fuel represents between 25% and 40% of an airline’s operating costs, a huge percentage that transforms any fluctuation in the price of energy into an immediate budget problem and which leads to a reevaluation of all routes, especially in a period, the summer one, which is normally the most profitable of the year.
Until it unlocks situation in the Strait of Hormuzthe sea corridor between Iran and Oman through which a huge share of the world’s oil passes, the pressure on energy prices will not be able to abate. “There is a risk of fuel supply rationing, particularly in Asia and Europe,” Willie Walsh, head of the International Air Transport Association, told Reuters, adding however that for now supply remains solid and that the crisis has not yet reached pandemic levels. Some, like Ryanair’s CEO, believe the risk is decreasing, while others remain more cautious.
THE’International Energy Agency (IEA) And the International Air Transport Association (IATA) confirmed that Europe is the most vulnerable area after Asia for jet fuel. After estimating in mid-April that European jet fuel stocks had fallen to an estimated range of around 40 days, the IEA forecasts that by June 2026, fuel stocks in Europe will fall, in the most pessimistic scenario, to 23 days of coveragea threshold classified as “shortage” (critical shortage), which would make it technically impossible to supply all scheduled flights. For this reason, European governments, including Italy, have been asked to activate fuel rationing plans and to suspend the rules on airport slots to allow companies to cut 10-20% of flights without penalties.
The effects on flights in summer 2026
The most concrete and immediate effect for those traveling from Italy will not necessarily be the impossibility of leaving due to cancellations, but generally higher pricesdue to companies trying to offset the rising costs of kerosene. In perspective, as told by the Financial Timesthere is a further risk relating to the cutting of flights departing from Europe (including Italy) and arriving in Asia: the fear of not being able to refuel for the return once they land. In fact, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and Asian countries continue to suffer from fuel shortages, landing in Bangkok or Singapore could become a logistical problem.
The war not only raised prices, but physically changed the geography of international flightsleading to a temporary closure of the airports of the Persian Gulf countries, previously fundamental hubs, given that around a third of all flights from Europe to Asia stopped there. In recent weeks, operations have resumed, but have not returned to previous levels, either in terms of frequency or passenger flows – and many companies have canceled flights passing through this area until the end of May. In the coming months everything will depend on the evolution of the conflict.
Companies operating on routes crossing the Persian Gulf have thus had to deal with a difficult choice: extend the route to get around crisis areas (increasing flight hours and fuel consumption) or reduce flight capacity, replacing larger planes with smaller, more efficient models, which however mean fewer seats on flights. And with the reduction of seats on some routestraffic has increased on the alternative ones, bringing an advantage to other companies: Air France, for example, has activated larger aircraft on the route to Mumbai to compensate for the reduction in frequencies, while Air China has done the same on the London-Beijing route. In Italy, Ita Airways has also launched new routes to meet growing demand.
There is a further technical aspect that concerns the companies, which will also have indirect effects on passengers. To maintain their own airport “slots”, that is, take-off and landing rights at a specific time, which can be worth millions of euros, companies are obliged to use them in at least 80% of cases every year. In this time of industry uncertainty, when costs and risks increase for consumers, consumers could weaken their own demand, leading to a paradox: airlines may prefer to fly half-empty planes rather than lose the slot to a competitor.
The British government has already introduced a measure to get around the problem: it will allow companies to cancel flights weeks in advance, so as to give passengers time to regroup, without this resulting in the loss of slots, and companies to consolidate flights instead of having them leave half-empty. Other European countries are likely to follow suit.
If the flight is cancelled: rights and refunds
If your flight is canceled by the company, EC Regulation 261/2004 establishes clear rules on your side: you always have the right to choose between a full refund of the ticket or boarding an alternative flight as soon as possible. In the event of a prolonged wait, the company is required to provide meals, drinks and, if necessary, hotel accommodation.
The most delicate point concerns the additional economic compensation (from 250 to 600 euros depending on the route), due only if the cancellation is communicated less than 14 days before departure. Companies can in fact try to refuse it by invoking so-called “exceptional circumstances”. War-related fuel volatility is legally gray territory: some companies try to use it to deny compensation. However, European jurisprudence tends to protect the passenger, so do not accept a refusal without first informing yourself or contacting a consumer protection body.
Practical advice for the 2026 season is to evaluate an insurance policy that explicitly includes “trip interruption” coverage and constant monitoring of airline app notifications. In such a variable context, where the answer could be to adopt greater flexibility in the face of flight cancellations and mergers, being informed in real time makes the difference in finding convenient alternatives with which to save your holidays.
