From the never-ending story of Gennaro Sangiuliano, to the award received by Giorgia Meloni from the hands of Elon Musk, the long summer of the Italian government’s ramblings seems never-ending. Instead, autumn has begun, bringing the main topic back to the center of political life: our public accounts. It is a consolidated tradition, by now, marked by the calendars of European deadlines and, even before, by the needs of Italian public finances and the laws that regulate them. By the end of the year, the budget for the year to come must be prepared, and since the end of the summer – aside from the many chatter that fills the mouths of politicians and commentators – all the thoughts that matter are dedicated to that. This year is no exception: on the contrary. This year the issue is more important and hot than ever.

Budget: Istat does not substantially change the data

The reason is explained by a double, concomitant change: the entry into force of new budget rules for member countries, which sanction the definitive end of the pandemic era and the related loosening of constraints, on the one hand; and the arrival of a new commissioner, the Latvian Dombrovskis, a well-known exponent of the political-geographical axis of rigor, who has always been suspicious of Mediterranean countries and their always disordered accounts. The transition from the era just passed, in which Paolo Gentiloni was supervising Europe’s accounts, to the one that is beginning, is described in detail by Walter Galbiati, in today’s Repubblica. In Italy, some were hoping that help would come from Istat and the revision of economic data from recent years. The changes for the worse and the changes for the better substantially offset each other and – as the Minister of Economy Giorgetti said – the general picture does not change. The names change, and the update note to the Def is replaced by the Strategrical Budget Plan, but the picture remains difficult, even if we continue to talk about something else.

Banks to be taxed and subsidies to be cut

The debt-to-GDP ratio, recalibrated downwards by a few points, remains well above 130% – the worst in Europe after the Greek one – while the rules of the new stability pact set it at 60%. The deficit-to-GDP ratio, similarly, is double the average of the euro era. These are dry numbers, pure statistics, but they condition our lives more than we have yet learned to think, and more than an entire political class wants to bend, perhaps for fear that citizens – once they understand the issue – will ask themselves and their representatives where they will find the money to make the numbers add up, to avoid European sanctions and – more seriously, in perspective – the distrust of the markets. The competent minister, Giancarlo Giorgetti, was keen to reassure everyone, as much as he could, explaining that Italy will immediately get on the track of respecting the budget rules, and will work to sort out its accounts. By taxing banks more, after last year’s disastrous attempt on extra profits, announced with Peronist fanfare by Salvini and ended in nothing? By scraping the barrel of subsidies to be cut, including perhaps those for the truly needy? By further thinning the welfare system? Who knows.

A country that looks back

Everyone knows, starting with him, that the undertaking is daunting, not only because it is complicated to reduce the deficit and debt without hurting the pockets and lives of many citizens, especially the less well-off. Even more difficult, in a country in a development crisis for decades, is to increase the GDP, the only other fundamental parameter – precisely – to improve compliance with European parameters. As has been said on other occasions, and as we will find ourselves saying on other occasions, the problem is to look at the fundamental problems of our country, and try to imagine credible and realistic solutions for the thorniest issues: industry, demography, education, integration with supranational bodies and networks. All issues that concern the present and the future, in a country that – due to average age and voter turnout – naturally tends to look back more than forward. Just scraping by: a bit like governments do, to get by the next elections. The one in office, frankly, does not seem to be an exception.

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