At least once in our lives, we have all asked ourselves: but how are weather forecasts made, and how do we know how accurate they are? Well, we asked ourselves that too, and as you can see in the video, we went to the 3BMeteo offices to show you how they are made!
What is weather forecast?
But let’s start with the basics: what is weather forecasting?
Also called “weather forecasting”, to describe it in a few words we can say that it is the result of the application of technology and knowledge of atmospheric physics in order to predict the weather conditions in the future in a given geographical area. There are many variables to consider, and to obtain meticulous forecasts you need to carefully observe a series of data and follow a series of specific processes.
The three steps to get the final prediction
To obtain weather forecasts there are certain steps to follow. First of all, the meteorological center receives atmospheric data from all over the world from two world meteorological centers, the European one in Reading and the English one from the MET OFFICE. Among the main data there are pressure, humidity, temperature, storm indices and so on.
Then all this information is fed to supercomputers, which are not in the studios you see in the video, but in a computing center. All these computers use physical-mathematical models to process the data, which will then be analyzed by the meteorologists of the 3BMeteo team.
Every day in the office there are at least 15 meteorologists present, with the task of choosing the most correct physical-mathematical model for different geographical areas based on their experience. For example, in rainy conditions, in northern Italy, the meteorologist decides which model to use depending on the morphological characteristics of that area.
This choice is fundamental, because there are dozens of possible models, which return different results.
Finally, the mathematical models return a result that the meteorologist, always based on his experience, can modify depending on the morphological conditions of the area.
The weather bulletin: constantly updated
At this point everything is ready to draft the “weather report”. The meteorologist enters the data into a super management software (the one you see in the video), which then returns the forecast that we see on the phone application or on the website.
But the work doesn’t end there: the forecasts must be constantly monitored for any changes or alignment of the current situation, and to do this they are verified by monitoring radars, satellites and weather stations. This from early in the morning… until eleven at night!
Complicated forecasts
Sometimes, due to atmospheric instability or bad weather, the forecasts may not be sufficiently reliable. In this case, a red label with the words “COMPLICATED FORECAST” appears on the app or website. This label means that the hourly forecast is not available, but that you can consult the time bands night/morning/afternoon/eveningpending more reliable data.
In short, weather forecasts are a complex thing that is based on a lot of data that can change. When we look at the forecasts, we must therefore keep in mind that they cannot offer 100% certainty, but that those we see on the site or on the app are made in the best possible way.
