Polls open in Iceland. On the small island located north of the Atlantic Ocean, voters will vote on Saturday 30 November. The outcome does not only concern internal political issues, given that at stake is also the possibility that the country will start the process of joining the European Union. The issue has divided Icelanders for years, but this time the pro-Europeans seem to have the advantage. The push towards Brussels is influenced by the excessively high costs of living, the constant eruptions and the shadow of Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
Costs of living too high in Iceland
After more than a decade, the prospect of EU membership has returned to the center of an election campaign in Iceland. Polls indicate voters’ greater favor towards pro-EU parties. At the moment around 45 percent of Icelanders are in favor, 35 percent are against and the rest of the population is undecided. In previous years, the idea of entering the bloc of 27 met with much lower consensus.
There are various factors influencing this change of direction. First of all, a not very prosperous economy. By joining the EU single market, Icelanders hope to strengthen their economy and break down existing trade barriers. Rents and food costs are very high. Joining the eurozone would also reduce exchange rate volatility.
Continuous volcanic eruptions
“Inflation and interest rates have been relatively high in Iceland and that always brings the euro back,” Eirikur Bergmann, a political science professor at Bifrost University in Iceland, told Reuters. A series of volcanic eruptions also brought the country to its knees, causing the displacement of thousands of people.
New eruption in Iceland: “It could go on for decades”
After lying dormant for 800 years, the geological systems of the Grindavik region reactivated in 2021. Since then, eruptions have increased in frequency, with six episodes recorded in 2024 alone. Thousands of people have had to move, resulting in the expensive construction of new infrastructure and a decline in tourism. Second Reykjavik is a “new era of volcanic eruptions” has begun, constituting an “existential threat to the nation”.
The weight of the war in Ukraine in the choices of Icelanders
Even though it is not an EU member state, Iceland still enjoys privileged relations with the 27 bloc. It is part of the EU single market, the Schengen open border travel zone and the European Free Trade Association. (Aels). In addition to the economy, the war in Ukraine also influenced the new positioning of Icelanders. “People look at the world and think: what about us? Should we be more connected to our allies?” said Jon Steindor Valdimarsson, a former MP and co-founder of the pro-EU Liberal Reform Party.
The hypothesis of a referendum on Iceland’s EU membership
In October, parliament was dissolved early by Icelandic Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson. He cited disagreements between the three parties in the governing coalition as the basis for the early elections. Both the Reform Party and the Social Democratic Alliance, both currently leading the polls, have already announced that if they win the elections they intend to hold a referendum on EU membership.
