It is naive those who make it unveiled that it is enough to repudiate the war to end it. The truth is simple and raw: diplomatic negotiations are currently impossible due to the strategic positions of all the actors involved.

Putin and Russia

Russia is located in a strategically difficult position: regional power with limited conventional capabilities, nuclear superpower, a great exporter of raw materials, but with an economy of average European power. The country, led by a leader with imperial ambitions and an immense ego, is watched in a conventional warning war against an apparently lower opponent, Ukrainian, but supported by the western blockade.

Putin understood that he could not win militarily. Not being able to count on effective allies (Iran and North Korea have limited resources, China offers diplomatic but poor concrete help), the only option remained is to obtain media-political success. The goal is to weaken Zelensky and break the western front, mainly exploiting the “Trump effect”, courting the US president without deviating from his goals.

Zelensky and Ukraine

Ukraine also has few strategic options. Despite good European financial support, the available military resources only allow them to maintain a stall. Zelensky cannot afford any significant diplomatic concession towards Russia, under penalty of loss of internal support. Therefore, he is forced to manage the relationship with Trump and to show him “gratitude” and availability, hoping to maximize American military support through a pragmatic diplomacy and attentive to the signals from Washington.

Trump and the United States

In this media scenario in which perception is at least as far as the real facts, Trump’s America remains the only true actor capable of altering immediate military balance. The US military reserves, still wide thanks to the arsenals of the Cold War, represent a decisive card. Trump could decide to sell them to Ukraine directly or through Europe, thus obtaining an immediate economic and political return.

All the actors involved are aware of this American card: Putin tries to prevent it from being played, Zelensky desperately tries to get it. Both do everything possible to indulge Trump, if not in fact, at least in appearances. Trump, for his part, remains mainly concentrated on internal politics, on his electoral base and on the promised economic successes. For him, diplomacy is secondary and useful only if it produces quick, visible and economically advantageous results.

And Europe?

Europe is not a unique and cohesive actor: each country has its internal, political and strategic divisions. The European Union and the main governments have decided to support Ukraine economically and politically, albeit with obvious differences in methods and times.

United Kingdom, France and Germany must face strong pro-russe internal oppositions and seek quick successes for electoral reasons. Italy has an opposite situation: the pro-Russian opposition does not grow, but a pro-Russian component internal to the government limits Meloni’s action, imposing prudence.

In fact, Europe can only support Ukraine with constancy, without being able to act decisively in the short term. His role remains that of solidterate and diplomatic background of Ukraine, who fights strong of this support, even if apparently alone.

Who really has cards

Ultimately Trump, contrary to his expectations, has neither prestige nor political weight to impose a real diplomatic solution. Therefore, inevitably, the war continues, showing that the concrete reality of the battlefield always prevails, sadly, on media illusions.