The days, months and years that we leave behind and those that we have ahead of us are pieces of a single fabric, of a trace that never seems to change: those who govern, in Italy, have little margin for action. The current executive, for example, declares that he wants to make history, but he also struggles to make the news. And therefore, the proclamations that announce great turning points and changes are then followed by modest measures, aimed at the survival of the patient, that is, of the country in the eyes of Europe and the markets, but also and perhaps above all the survival of the government. The week we leave behind, for example, began with the presentation of the 2025 budget, the most important economic policy measure of the year, because it establishes how much more money will be needed compared to the previous year and where to find it between cuts spending and new taxes. This year, to limit the risk of official warnings from the European Union and, above all, to avoid the harshest sanction, that of the markets which by purchasing our government bonds allow the State – the Nation, as the president of the Meloni’s advice – around 30 billion were needed to pay salaries, pensions and public services. The objective of reassuring the markets, which is measured by the temperature of the spread, has certainly succeeded, if it is true, as it is true, that the spread between Bunds and BTPs recorded on Friday 18 October is 117 basis points, the lowest level recorded from November 2021 – when Draghi was there, so to speak. In short, a very effective Meloni-Giorgetti government, from the point of view of the ability to reassure investors under the given conditions, as even Mario Monti, probably the emblem of the arch-enemy of those in government today, interviewed by Corriere della Sera, recognizes. Yes, but how?

Coins from the banks

By adopting a prudent and restrictive economic policy, beyond any previous and recent propaganda. The weeks of the 2025 budget maneuver are dotted with evidence that goes in this direction. Let’s think about the provision on “extra profits of the banks”, as it was emphatically defined by Matteo Salvini at the end of the summer of 2023. We were talking, then, about interest rates reaching maximum levels, at the end of a constant cycle of increases wanted by the ECB to fight galloping inflation. In that context, it is always the banks that earn a lot of money, “standing still”. The minister of infrastructure, not of the economy or finance, probably in his role as secretary of the party representing the real economy minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, even promised an extra revenue close to 10 billion, taxing unidentified “extra profits”. The disorganized statement, evidently neither agreed upon nor prepared from a technical and political point of view, sparked Giorgetti’s mutiny and an outcry from the banking world. The measure ended in nothing, and in its version for the following year – that is, now – it results in the transfer of modest tax deductions to the next few years, for a total – however still to be verified – of around 3 billion, around 10% of the maneuver. Calm markets, silently satisfied bankers, and a little more money in the state budget right away. Then next year we will think about it.

Land registry income

The provision on the updates of the cadastral income for homes that have benefited from the superbonus, strongly desired by Giorgetti and which will be carried out by the owners within 30 days of the end of the works, would also deserve a more in-depth look, and less prone to propaganda. if still in progress. In fact, if it is true that the superbonus has burdened public finances with a very high bill, and if it is equally true that Europe has been asking our country for decades to update the values ​​of the land register which were stuck in the days of the lira, it is equally true that this the measure will only concern homes that have benefited from the 110% bonus. Furthermore, for this update to translate into greater cash flows for the public budget, it is necessary that the works concern second homes given that – as is known – the IMU on first homes was abolished by the Renzi Government in 2015, and therefore whatever the registered cadastral income, it does not affect the owners’ declaration of income and assets regarding the first home.

Maneuver that calms the markets

For the rest, the maneuver that reassures the markets, Europe and even Mario Monti-style penalty takers is made up of linear cuts to ministries, limitations on some deductions and tax advantages for businesses. Furthermore, the path of amendments and requests from Parliament now begins, so the real maneuver We’ll get to know her in a bit. What is certain is that, as is obvious, and as is also right, it is not a maneuver that squanders, that spends and spreads, but rather it is a puzzle of complicated choices made by those who recognise, with realism, that the borders are narrow and the banks are always ready to explode for Italian public finances. For this reason, also for this reason, the migrant issue is particularly good for government propaganda, the eternal safe-conduct for the right-right, which this time takes the form of the ban by the judiciary on the use of expensive and controversial hot spots organized in Albania. Faced with a judiciary that explains, indeed with good reason, that it was an obligatory decision, government policy is immediately ready to return to the ancient adages: there is a judiciary that opposes the freedom of politics and its prerogatives, c ‘it is an illegitimate struggle of state power against that of the executive. The Minister of Justice himself, Carlo Nordio, said it, and President Meloni said it clearly. When Berlusconi was there, for much less, there was a cry of subversion. Today everything seems muffled, muffled, exhausted by time that wears away the edges. The spread is under control, we will deal with everything else if we have time, perhaps. Or maybe not.