Giorgia Meloni and Pedro Sanchez will be the main important leaders of the European Union (and beyond) to be present at the climate conference in Baku. The two could take advantage of the many absences at the summit taking place in Azerbaijan to play a leading role in the most important conference dedicated to climate change. Cop29 will be an opportunity for them to renew a long-distance “challenge” between the opposing poles of politics on the old continent. The Italian Prime Minister, an exponent of the European ultra-right, has long adopted a moderate and “responsible” attitude in Brussels, cultivating her understanding with Ursula von der Leyen, without however giving up relations with the authoritarian Hungarian leader Viktor Orban.
The fight against climate change is not a priority on his agenda, but his presence could be useful in forging even stronger agreements with Azerbaijan. The host country is a “champion” of fossil energy, from which the European continent doubled its oil and gas imports after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. On the other hand, the socialist prime minister remained the last bastion of the European left, increasingly isolated after the collapse of the government coalition led by Olaf Scholz in Germany. The Iberian head of government appears determined not to let go in a context that sees the far right advancing in almost all EU countries. Sánchez will try to convince delegates to adopt more stringent measures on the energy transition. A response to the “stick” received in Paiporta, while he was visiting the flood victims of the Valencian region.
Who were absent from the Baku climate summit?
Among the notable absentees at Cop29 are the President of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen, busy in the transition phase towards her second mandate and in the hearings of the commissioners-designate. French President Emmanuel Macron also withdrew after Paris condemned Azerbaijan’s offensive against the Armenians in Nagorno Karabakh. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz resigned after the collapse of his governing coalition. In the non-EU context, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin will be missing, as will the outgoing US president Joe Biden. Among those absent is also the Brazilian Luis Ignacio Lula, recovering from a head injury. It will be his turn to host the next Cop in Belem in 2025.
Doubts about the usefulness of climate COPs
Climate COPs are facing a crisis of credibility. The usefulness of a tool that has an annual frequency is questioned, the results of which are therefore difficult to evaluate for multi-year and global phenomena. Technical discussions also play a key role rather than the presence or absence of global leaders. Although Italians and Europeans are well aware of what the climate disaster can entail (see Emilia Romagna and Valencia), the immediate consequences of the energy transition (layoffs in some key sectors such as the automotive sector, increase in energy costs) have an increasingly greater weight in citizens’ evaluations, particularly at the ballot box.
COP29, why the UN climate conference is important
The main challenge of this COP will be to agree on a new climate financing target to be applied starting from 2025. The aim is to exceed the annual figure of 100 billion dollars set by the Paris Agreement. We will also work to adopt concrete measures to progressively replace fossil fuels with renewable energy.
The role of Giorgia Meloni in Baku
The Italian delegation led by the Prime Minister will arrive in Baku on 13 November. Also accompanying her will be Gilberto Picetto-Fratin, Minister of the Environment and Energy Security. Meloni could play a mediation role towards President-elect Donald Trump, who threatens to withdraw from the Paris climate agreements and is ready to apply protectionist tariffs in many sectors. A choice that risks slowing down the process of reducing emissions, as well as altering the dynamics of international trade.
Even if the new head of the White House will not be present in Baku, the leader of the Brothers of Italy could take advantage of the global stage of Cop29 to launch a message of détente and collaboration between Rome, Brussels and Washington. The EU Commission led by Ursula von der Leyen has already taken several steps back from the commitments made with the Green Deal and aims to remain a preferential partner of the United States, both on a commercial and diplomatic level. On the other hand, turning our backs on the energy transition would mean a retreat compared to China and other countries such as those in the Gulf, which must be sent in this direction.
Sánchez’s role at Cop29 in Azerbaijan
Pedro Sánchez decided to travel to Baku anyway, despite the crisis due to Dana. The over 200 deaths in the province of Valencia will weigh like a giant brick, to be dragged all the way to Azerbaijan. The socialist leader from the first moment linked the catastrophe to global warming, even though the responsibilities of the Valencian Generalitat in managing both the territory and the emergency contributed to the catastrophe. Sánchez could be less conciliatory than Meloni and insist on more precise and rapid efforts aimed at decarbonization and an increase in investment in renewables.
In the background the hearings of Fitto and Ribera
At the same time, the two leaders will be busy remotely monitoring the outcome of the hearings of their commissioners-designate in the European Parliament. Raffaele Fitto, a member of Fratelli d’Italia (Ecr) indicated as executive vice-president, is expected in Brussels in the morning of November 12th. The Italian is banking on the support of the People’s Party, but fears being “balled” by the Socialists and Greens.
The other key hearing, in the evening, is that of the Spanish Teresa Ribera, nominated as vice president for the “Clean, fair and competitive transition”. Fitto and Ribera are closely linked. Only if one is approved, the other will receive the green light from the European Chamber. Rumors indicate that the socialists are willing to “pinch themselves” and vote for Meloni’s loyalist, just to see Ribera alongside von der Leyen. Madrid and Rome will anxiously await the outcome from Brussels.
