There are a few hours away from the uncontrolled return in the atmosphere after 53 years of the Soviet satellite Kosmos 482: According to the latest forecasts of the Space Debris Office of the European Space Agency, the return is scheduled for 8:26 (Italian time) of Tomattina, with an uncertainty of 4.35 hours. The window within which the probe launched in 1972 with the aim of landing on Venus goes then from 4:05 to 12:47. The uncertainty is due to the numerous variables that influence the trajectory of an object that is spiraling towards the earth uncontrolled, such as atmospheric density and the interaction with the sun wind, but is intended to reduce as the monitoring of the object will continue. In any case, The risks for the population are completely negligible.
Even the exact position of the return is not yet known, since uncertainties are still significant. According to the most recent forecast of the Space Debris Office – which, we repeat, will evolve in the next few hours – the point of impact with the ground could be in the middle of the Gulf of Bengal Between India and Myanmar, but the real position can also be very different. As seen in the figure below, the forecast shows two possible passages above Italy during the return, one on the major islands and one on central Italy.
One thing we can say as of now is that There is no reason to alarmed. Of course, we are talking about a lander of 495 kg specially designed to resist a landing on the most “infernal” planet of the Solar System, which therefore probably it will not burn in the atmosphere nor will it fragmente. And in all likelihood we will not be able to count on the parachute mounted aboard the probe, which after 53 years in space can hardly work.
All this is true, but at the same time we are also talking about a more or less wide sphere 1 meter which must fall on a planet almost wide 13,000 km. The earth is a vast target and the surface is mostly covered with oceans or completely uninhabited. The same space debris office of the European Space Agency defines as “extremely remote” the chances that Kosmos 482 can cause damage or injure someone. Experts calculate in fact a 1 out of 100 billion The chances of being affected by a space debris: in comparison, the chances of being affected by lightning are 65,000 times greater.
