The air raids with missile launches made byIndia against the Pakistan on the disputed territory of Kashmir In the night between 6 and 7 May 2025, which took place as a response to the massacre of tourists in Pahalgam on April 22, they caused at least 34 victims and unleashed counterattacks by Pakistan, effectively causing an exchange of attacks with drones and planes. It is feared for the Risk of escalationespecially on the basis of the fact that both countries – whose tensions have lasted for decades – hold nuclear arsenals.
In such a delicate situation, catastrophism is needed but also appeal to a considerable dose of political realism. The so -called “shadow of nuclear power” could in itself be an incentive to avoid the most busty scenarios. However, it is necessary to underline the fact that India and Pakistan are not fighting one “Cold War”but are instead involved in a real conflict motivated by fears, interests and real claims.
At the moment of course, it is almost impossible to make detailed forecasts, but we can trace the contours of the Three main future scenarios which are also configured in the light of the geopolitical context of this area of the world.
First scenario: the de-Escalation
In this scenario political leadership and, above all, the military one driving the “Puri country” (etymological meaning of the term “Pakistan”) He decides not to respond to the Indian provocation, limiting himself to a strength show (troop movements, lightning exercises and so on) and making a big voice, but without going to action, and then proceeding to a slow but wary of normalization process in order to bring the tension back to the existing level before the Pahalgam attack. This is The most optimistic scenario What would like to most.
Second scenario: limited retaliation
Perhaps it represents the scenario that at this moment the Pachistani are taking anratte in consideration and that, on closer inspection, have already implemented in the past towards India (“Swift Retort” operation Following the bombing of Balakot on February 26, 2019) and towards Iran (“BAR SARMACHAR” Operation Following the missile attack by Pasdaran against terrorist objectives in the territory of Beluchistan Pachistano, on January 16, 2024). This is the scenario that leaves the major unknowns open because it could start a spiral of actions and reactions that could return or end up out of control.
Third scenario: escalation and war
This scenario provides that Pakistan reacts to the Indian provocation with one Military response without restrictions of any kind, transforming the comparison into a real war as it has not happened since 1971. The great fear linked to this scenario is linked to the possibility – at the moment particularly remote – that from “Conventional exchanges” you can move on to one Thermonuclear warsince both countries are in fact nuclear powers.
Geopolitical asymmetry in the conflict between India and Pakistan
The Indo-Pachistano conflict lasts from 1947that is, since the two countries gained independence from the British colonial domain, and above all concerns the belonging of Kashmir, disputed between the two countries. Since then India and Pakistan have fought four warsin addition to numerous Frontier accidents And Moments of lit tension. Although for over two decades Pakistan managed to keep the rise of the mighty rival at bay, the catastrophic defeat in the War of 1971 led to obtaining the 1974 of the status of nuclear power by India (“Smiling Buddha” operation), relegating Pakistan to the rank of second order power that not even the achievement of the status of nuclear status In the 1998 (“Chagai-I” and “Chagai-II” operations) he managed to modify.
After almost eighty years of separate and parallel history, net of infinite problems and internal contradictions that grip them and that seem to have no solution, the two giants of the Indian subcontinent present a substantial asymmetry in the so -called “Hard Power”. In addition to being less extended territorially and much less endowed with natural resources, Pakistan cares demographically in the conferences of India. This leads India to overcome Pakistan as a Total GDP And GDP per capitaas well as in military posture, with Pakistan who has a third of Armed and safety forces India.
The differences in “weight” between the two countries are such as to suggest the conclusion that, if Pakistan had obtained nuclear weapons, he had not wisely and ruthlessly used the International terrorism of Islamic matrix To the detriment of the neighbor and had not been particularly skilled to establish diplomatic and profitable collaboration, almost certainly would have already been crushed by India and disappeared by geographical maps.
There Kashmir disputewhich sees both new Delhi and Islamabad to claim control of the totality of the Kashmiro territory, for example, has a strategic importance that does not allow any step back to the two leadership. Also the opposite ideological thrusts (Political Islamism in Pakistan and Hindutva in India) do not leave much space for maneuver to all those who instead advocate a system of “peaceful coexistence” between two states which, for better or for worse, in any case represent the “ethnic and cultural continuation” each other.
In this tangle of historical events and equal and opposite geopolitical interests, all that remains is to continue to monitor the situation trying to interpret the current and future moves of the opposite leadership, hoping in the best but without excluding the worst a priori.
