The September 17, 2024starting from 3:45 PM local time of the capital of Lebanon Beirut (4.45pm Italian time), the secret services Israelis They carried out a remote attack by explode at the same time thousands of pagers supplied to the militiamen of Hezbollahthe Lebanese Islamic political-military organization allied with Hamas against Israel whose name means “Party of God”, inflicting a very heavy blow to the organization based in southern Lebanon. The explosions were recorded throughout the territory of the Lebanon during the hour following 3.45pm. The effect was sensational because, beyond the practical results – the injury of approximately 4000 people (including over 500 who have lost their sight including the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon) andkilling Of 18 individuals (data updated at 09:30 Italian time on 18 September 2024) – the attack has become the main news on many global news channels. Hezbollah had purchased the pagers from theIranits geopolitical ally in the Middle East and enemy of Israel, because they are considered more secure than smartphones in terms of interception and hacking capabilities. The exploded pagers were reportedly the latest model purchased by Hezbollah. mode with which the pagers were supposedly detonated is still the case under study: thehypothesis widely more likely at the moment it is that during the assembly phase some explosives had been inserted inside them (perhaps some PETN on the batteries), which was then done detonate at a distance (perhaps by overheating the batteries). Hezbollah has already received support from its supporters in the region and has communicated that the attack will not go unpunished and will certainly receive a military response.
Israel’s attack in the broader context of the war in the Middle East
The Israeli secret service’s attack on Hezbollah by exploding pagers in the organization’s hands was sudden, but it did not come as a bolt from the blue. Since the outbreak of the current War between Israel and Hamas in Palestine, which occurred following the attacks of 7 October 2023 and which pits the State of Israel on one side and the Palestinian armed militant groups led by Hamas on the other, the situation in the northern area, on the border between Israel, Lebanon and Syria, has progressively deteriorated. In fact, there has been a spiral of bombings, terrorist attacks and targeted assassinations that Israel and Hezbollah have carried out against each other and which on more than one occasion have risked causing the dispute to degenerate into a widespread and generalized war. In particular, since the early days of September 2024 we witnessed a recrudescence of the conflict as declarations from high-ranking Israeli politicians, particularly the Prime Minister, have multiplied Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahuon the need for the “Jewish State” to “take action”, inaugurating a massive ground offensive against the Lebanese state along the lines of what was done in the Gaza Strip over the past year.
How was the pager attack possible?
Israel’s attack on Hezbollah pagers leaves many question marks with respect to the way it was carried out, which only careful investigations by experts will be able to explain. However, it seems that the pagers involved belonged to a lot 5 months ago supplied to Hezbollah by Iran following the prohibition imposed by the political and military leaders of the organization on its members to use the cell phonesconsidered too easily hackable and interceptable.
Israel’s recent killing of several leading Hezbollah members, most notably that of Ismail Haniyehfollowing a missile attack on July 31, 2024 in the southern area of Beirut, seems to have convinced the highest levels of the “Party of God”, including the secretary himself Hassan Nasrallahto fall back on pagers, which are much less advanced and flexible, technologically speaking, but also more difficult to “jam” and intercept.
Hence the two main hypotheses that the pagers were set off or interfering with their frequencies (much less likely hypothesis) or by placing someexplosive on the batteries then overheated and exploded remotely (the Israeli secret services, in particular, are known to use various derivatives of Semtex of Czechoslovakian origin or PETN may have been used) during assembly in Iran before their delivery. The toll is still provisional and amounts to over 4000 wounded and at least 18 dead.
What could be the consequences?
It is very difficult to advance at the time of hypothesis on what the could be backlash of what will probably go down in history as one of the most successful operations of the Israeli secret services. The surprise effect was total and Hezbollah felt the full blow given that many of the wounded belong to the crème de la crème of the Lebanese political-military organization. Total was also theIran’s embarrassmentwhich once again sees its deterrent capacity towards Jerusalem struck at the heart and finds itself once again in the dilemma of choosing between retaliation and inaction. What is certain is that the situation in the Middle East is heating up again.
