Tifone Shanshan Giappone

Typhoon Shanshan hits Japan, at least 3 dead: Path and forecast

Credit: MODIS imagery from NASA’s Aqua Satellite

In the early hours of today, Thursday, August 29, 2024, the typhoon shanshan hit southwestern Japan in the prefecture of Kagoshimaon the island of Kyushu (already hit by two violent earthquakes at the beginning of August) with gusts of wind up to 185 km/htorrential rains up to 80 centimeters in the last 48 hours in Misato (1.4 times the average for the entire month of August) and forecasts up to 90-100 cm in some areas of southern Japan. So far, Shanshan has caused at least 100,000 deaths in the prefectures of Kagoshima, Miyazaki and Oita. 3 dead, 30 injured, a missing person, 4 million people evacuated in the areas of Kagoshima, Miyazaki, Oita, Kumamoto, Fukuoka, Saga, Nagasaki, Ehime, Aichi, Gifu, Shizuoka and Mie, floods in Yfuin, waves up to 7.7 meters and at least 40 buildings damagedThe Japan Meteorological Agency has issued aspecial alert due to the risk of landslides and floods. Hundreds of flights have been canceled, high-speed trains have been grounded, and many factories have suspended production lines.

The Path of Typhoon Shanshan and Its Strength

Typhoon Shanshan Path
Path of Typhoon Shanshan from its birth to the time of landfall in Japan. COLOR LEGEND: light blue: tropical depression; cyan: tropical storm; light yellow: Category 1 (equivalent) hurricane; light orange: Category 2 (equivalent); orange: Category 3 (equivalent); red: Category 4 (equivalent).

Typhoon Shanshan formed on August 20th as a low pressure area near the Mariana Islands in the Pacific. On August 21, it was moved to the category of tropical depressionAugust 22nd became a tropical storm and on August 23rd a minor typhoonthat is, it developed an eye-like structure, which became a full-blown eye about 20 km wide on August 26. On August 27, Shanshan reached its peak intensity with sustained winds of up to 215 km/h, bringing it to the equivalent of the Category 4 in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (remember that “typhoons” and “hurricanes” are the same phenomenon; they are called “typhoons” if they develop on the Asian side of the Pacific). From August 28, the typhoon lost intensity and turned north before hitting the Japanese coast.

Where will Typhoon Shanshan pass: the forecast

Unfortunately, Shanshan will not only tangentially touch Japan: according to the forecasts of the Japan Meteorological Agency, the typhoon will rise towards the hinterland of Japan and will cross a good part of the nation. Fortunately, however, Shanshan’s strength is set to decline quickly since without underlying waters the “engine” of a cyclone tends to gradually shut down. In fact, it is expected that already today the disturbance will decrease until it returns to the state of a tropical storm with maximum winds of 107 km/h. Shanhsan could return to the ocean in the final hours of Monday 2nd Septemberstill with the strength of a tropical storm but with winds of about 65 km/hTorrential rain, lightning and hail are therefore expected in the next few days.

Typhoon Shanhan Forecast
Japan Meteorological Agency forecast for Shanshan’s path in Japan. Source: Windy