German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been grappling with a gigantic crisis for months. And Brandenburg could be fatal for him. This weekend, local elections are expected in Germany in the state where the socialists are historically victorious and where the head of state has his bastion. However, the political landscape has changed profoundly and the far-right party AfD could win again, after the successes in Thuringia and Saxony in recent weeks. Another defeat for the Social Democrats would have a different weight this time.
Scholz feels like the boss of the house in Brendeburg, and a defeat at the polls would demote him at the national level as well. With the Volkswagen crisis threatening to overwhelm the country, the only “strong” move by the Chancellor so far has been border controls and the promise to increase rejections. The anti-immigration fight not only smacks of a right-wing turn, but also of a lack of alternative ideas. It is unlikely that it will be enough to change course in that part of the German electorate that has turned its back on him.
What the polls say for the Brandenburg elections
Brandenburg is the state that surrounds Berlin, the tenth most populous in Germany, with 2.6 million inhabitants. Here the immigration rate is stuck at 12%. Small stuff compared to the average of 30% found in the rest of the country. In this less industrialized region, which has retained many green areas, many Berliners fleeing the capital have come to live. Politically it is a stronghold of the SPD party. The Social Democrats have come first in all the regional elections in this former state of East Germany, leading its reunification after the fall of the wall. This time, however, the polls give them second place, with 27% of the votes against the 28% attributed to the AfD. The advantage is very narrow but says a lot about the loss of consensus of Chancellor Scholz.
According to analysts, the SPD will still remain in the regional government thanks to a coalition, but it remains a sign of how unpopular the central government has become in Germany. The other squares are contested by the Christian Democratic Party (CDU), stuck at around 15%, then the left-wing party Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), a little lower than the Christian Democrats. Brandenburg also confirms the total collapse of both the Greens and the radical left-wing party Linke, both below 5%. It is therefore likely that the SPD will continue in a coalition government with the CDU and the Greens, led by the social democrat Dietmar Woidke, candidate for his fourth term. If he wins, it would be a record in terms of continuity of political leadership. But will it be enough to save Scholz’s head?
The Tesla Factor
While the rest of Germany is in a crisis at Volkswagen, which is planning layoffs and plant closures, the main industrial site in Brandenburg is headed by magnate Elon Musk. Since 2022, Tesla has been producing electric cars near the Berlin-Brandenburg International Airport (BER), named after Willy Brandt. The factory located in Grünheide is the first one installed in Europe by the South African entrepreneur, who employs around 7,000 people from 50 countries.
Volkswagen closes plants in Germany but continues its business in China
Thanks to these figures, Tesla is the largest private employer in the state-region. The billionaire has now become a true “factor” of the far right, both in the United States and in Europe. At the moment, Musk seems to be mainly engaged in the US electoral campaign to support his ally Donald Trump, but it is not excluded that he decides to appear on X for some posts on the German electoral appointment.
What happens to Scholz if he loses the Brandenburg election?
Chancellor Scholz has been struggling for weeks to escape the mounting unpopularity to which elections, the media and polls have condemned him. He has taken refuge in border controls to calm the increasingly heated tempers of the Germans, but the voices around the Bundestag are babbling of a guillotine ready in the event of a defeat in Brandenburg. In his place, the red-green-yellow coalition could place Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, the only one who enjoys popularity in Germany among the politicians in government. From a science fiction scenario, this hypothesis is becoming more concrete. The vote on September 22 will tell whether Scholz’s head will fall or not.
