The majority that should support Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission is already falling apart. If she was ever born. Yes, because ever since the vote of confidence in the German People’s Party last July, the coalition that should support her over the next five years has proven to be more precarious than ever. Now the ongoing clash over the hearings of the vice-presidents, Raffaele Fitto first and foremost, is confirming that it will not be possible to talk about a real majority, and that the alliances that will support (or reject) Brussels’ future legislative interventions will be more fluid than ever .
The official majority
Officially, the new European Commission should be supported in Parliament by an alliance between the People’s Party (the main force in the Chamber), Socialists and Liberals. But this union is far from compact and the vote of confidence in von der Leyen herself in July has already demonstrated this.
Then the German People’s Party obtained 401 votes in favour, 40 more than the minimum majority of 361 out of 740 seats, and exactly the sum of the votes of the parties that support it: People’s Party, Socialists and Liberals. But in reality there had been around 50 snipers and von der Leyen was saved by the Greens, who with theirs have 53 parliamentarians and supported the reconfirmation in a united manner, effectively positioning themselves as a sort of external support.
The popular look to the right
The People’s Party, however, do not want to collaborate with the environmentalists at all and indeed intend to dismantle the Green Deal where still possible, and to do so they are seeking the support of the right of the Chamber, starting with Giorgia Meloni’s Conservatives and Reformists (Ecr), the group of which is part of the Brothers of Italy. But not only that. If necessary they have already demonstrated that they are ready to ally themselves with the most radical right: The Patriots for Europe of Viktor Orban, Marine Le Pen and Matteo Salvini, and also with the Europe of the sovereign nations of the German AfD.
The von der Leyen majority is already split: the People’s Party allies themselves with the far right
There has always been a sort of ‘cordon sanitaire’ against these forces in the European Parliament, which closes off any collaboration. But the EPP has already broken this cord, creating what has been called ‘the Venezuelan coalition’, due to the fact that three times so far, precisely on issues linked to Venezuela, the People’s Party have managed to pass their measures thanks to the support compact of the radical right.
The Fitto case
In this already complicated situation comes theaffair Fitto, who is effectively holding hostage the entry into office of the new Commission, scheduled for December 1st but which could be postponed. Giving in to pressure from Italy, which is a founding country and one of the largest and most influential in the bloc, von der Leyen proposed the role of executive vice president for Meloni’s man.
This choice was immediately criticized by socialists, liberals and Greens, who complain that a force that is not part of the majority in support of the Commission (and moreover of the radical right), should not have such a prestigious position. But ultimately Fitto is a moderate candidate, a former Forza Italia Christian Democrat, certainly not an extremist within FdI. But then why so much fury against him? Liberals and socialists ask for a guarantee that the conservatives will not be pulled into the majority and that von der Leyen (and therefore the People’s Party) will not think in the future of proposing legislative interventions counting on their support.
The regulation on deforestation
In the declarations von der Leyen gave these guarantees, but to complicate things there is the vote on an almost unknown legislative measure, which however is sending the European Parliament into turmoil. This is the vote on the Commission’s request to postpone by one year (from 2025 to 2026) the entry into force of the new regulation to combat so-called ‘imported deforestation’, a choice on which there is broad consensus in the Chamber.
Sabotage of deforestation law gets coffee, cocoa and rubber importers into trouble
The problem is that right now, while deputies are called to give their confidence to the commissioners of von der Leyen’s new team, the EPP has proposed amendments to the regulation on deforestation with the aim of weakening it. And he did so against the advice of his socialist and liberal allies, and hoping to gain the votes of the ‘Venezuelan coalition’.
All against all
This has created even more distrust and exacerbated the debate on the Commission. And so now in Brussels no one trusts anyone anymore and the green light for Fitto and the other five vice presidents has been frozen. Just as the judgment on the Hungarian commissioner Olivér Várhelyi of Fidesz has been frozen, with the parties threatening retaliation in the event of the rejection of one of their representatives. If Fitto falls, the Spanish socialist Teresa Ribera and perhaps even the French liberal Stéphane Séjourné will also fall with him. If a good morning starts in the morning, the new European legislature promises to be one of the most contentious ever.
