In the context of a possible escalation in Middle Eastparticularly in the Gulf Perchinternational attention is directed towards oil, gas And energy supplies. However, in one of the most regions dry of the planet, another vital resource is l‘drinking water, produced largely thanks to the plants of desalination. THE’Iran accuses the United States of having damaged the desalination plant of Qeshmin Strait of Hormuzreducing the water supply of 30 villages, while last Sunday Iran was itself accused of having damaged a desalination plant in Bahrain. These infrastructures, which allow the transformation of sea water into drinking water, represent a strategic element both for the internal stability of the Gulf States and for the regional geopolitical balances. For many countries on the Arabian Peninsula, in fact, these plants are vital infrastructures: in the event that the conflict spreads further and these plants were partially or totally destroyed, this could cause a crisis that is not only geopolitical but also humanitarian on a large scale.
Why desalination plants are vital
The Middle East it is one of the most vulnerable areas from the point of view water. According to the World Bank, the Middle East and North Africa region has less than 2% of renewable water resources globally despite hosting around 6% of the world’s population. For this reason, starting from the seventies, the Gulf countries have invested in infrastructure for sea water desalination. Today the Middle East produces most of the planet’s desalinated water: according to the World Bank, the region is concentrated over 75% of global desalination capacity. According to analyzes reported by Al Jazeera, over 400 plants are concentrated in this areamaking this infrastructure essential for the survival of the region’s major cities.
Where the main facilities are located
Most desalination plants are located along the coasts of the Persian Gulf and the Red Seadue to the need for the plants to draw from sea water and therefore to be located logistically along the coast. This element, however, increases vulnerability of these infrastructures in the event of conflict. Among the largest and most important complexes from a strategic point of view there are several plants in Saudi Arabia, like the implant of Jubail, on the east coast. This is one of the largest desalination plants in the world and produces approx 1.6 million cubic meters of water per day, which is transported via a dense network of pipelines to the capital Riyadh. Another large Saudi plant is that of Ras Al-Khair, with a capacity of approximately one million cubic meters per day. In the United Arab Emiratesinstead, we encounter the complex of Jebel Ali, Dubai. This also represents one of the largest desalination systems in the world. Often these infrastructures are directly integrated with power plants, giving life to a system cogeneration, which produces energy and drinking water at the same time. As a result, any attacks on these facilities could simultaneously disrupt them two essential services.
The countries most dependent on desalination
Dependence on desalination varies among different states in the region, but in many Gulf countries represents the main source of drinking water. According to Al Jazeera and the Institut français des relations internationales (IFri), some states depend almost totally from this technology. The Kuwait, for example, gets about the 90% of their own drinking water from desalinationwith one of the highest percentages in the world. Also there‘Oman depends on this technology for approximately86% of your water needs, while in Saudi Arabia the quota is around 70%. Addiction is also significant in United Arab Emirateswhere about the 40-45% of drinking water comes from desalination plants, with much higher percentages in coastal cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Smaller countries like Qatar and Bahrain, then, they depend almost completely from this water supply technology. This dependence is also the result of the rapid urban and economic development of the region: metropolises such as Dubai, Doha and Riyadh have recorded a demographic and infrastructural growth extraordinary, with very high water consumption in extremely arid natural contexts.
Water as a new geopolitical resource
Given their vital importance, the plants of desalination they also represent one of the most vulnerable points of the region’s strategic infrastructure, quickly causing a serious water crisis. In fact, unlike other infrastructures, desalination plants require complex technologies and very long lead times to be repaired or replaced. For this reason, in the context of a possible military escalation between Iran and the Gulf monarchies, these structures are considered strategic assets as much as oil ports, refineries or pipelines. In this context the environmental and water safety become closely connected. A further risk concerns possible attacks to nuclear infrastructures, such as the Bushehr reactor, Iran. Any leakage of radioactive material, in addition to contaminating the area, it would also have a devastating impact on the water, used both domestically and agricultural and industrialthanks to the desalination plants, generating serious consequences also on the fishing sector. If oil has defined the geopolitics of the Gulf throughout the last century, now it is there‘waterfall to be able to become an equally crucial resource. The growing water scarcity, aggravated by climate change and by the increase in population, it makes the desalination an indispensable technology for the economic and urban survival of the region. In this context, desalination plants are real strategic nodes and their vulnerability represents one of the most important factors influencing the evolution of a possible regional or global conflict. The Gulf maritime, air and digital transport could suffer serious disruptions, as could the economic and humanitarian security in countries such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman.
