1237 days have passed since the beginning of the War between Russia and Ukraineyet a perspective of peace seems more and more distant. In fact, the conflict underwent a new escalation: in the night between 13 and 14 July, 136 Russian drones hit at least 10 Ukrainian locations, after the largest had already been launched last week air attack against Ukraine from the beginning of the invasion.
In the meantime, Donald Trump has announced the sending to Kiev of new Patriot missiles (which will however be financed by the European countries), and then return to criticize the attitude of Vladimir Putin And its unavailability to a truce.
But why don’t Russia seem interested in reaching peace in the short term? Second Aldo FerrariProfessor of the Ca ‘Foscari University of Venice and Manager of the Inspire Observatory on Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia, what interests Putin now is the victoryrather than peace. Moscow, among other things, is advancing quite quickly on the front and will not stop until it has obtained two fundamental conditions: the neutrality complete with Kiev and the renunciation of Ukraine at the entrance to the BORN.
According to the expert inspire, to close this conflict theWest He will therefore have to convince Ukraine to accept territorial losses, offering them in exchange for a place within theEuropean Union and financing the reconstruction.
Professor, why don’t Putin mean to mediate for peace with Ukraine?
In reality, in the western vision of the Ukrainian-Russia conflict there is a misunderstanding: We think that Putin wants peace. This is not entirely false, but it is not completely true. THE’primary objective of Russia is the victory. Putin, therefore, will begin to be interested in peace only when he has won the war.
At this moment, then, Moscow is advancing enough quickly on the war front, for which Putin has no logical reason for stop the conflict or accept a respite. Russia will continue to advance on the ground and to bomb the Ukrainian strategic objectives until peace is obtained in its condition.
What are these conditions that Russia would like to impose?
First of all, we must specify that the main reason So Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022 concerned the possibility that Kiev would become part of NATO. Moscow, therefore, had attacked in advance for block a further expansion to the east of NATO.
For this, the main conditions imposed by Russia are essentially two: the demilitarization of Ukraine and the non -entry of Kiev in theAtlantic alliance. In the meantime, during this war Russia has also conquered four Ukrainian regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzia and Kerson, ed) which has already an illegally annexed to its territory. Then of course there are also other requests, including the change of Kiev regime and the resignation of Zelenskybut these are already conditions on which Moscow could be willing to treat.
The two initial conditions, however, are gods Stopping points For Putin and must be clear to the West: clearly they don’t like Ukraine and we don’t even like Westerners, that’s why war is continuing without a real perspective of peace or respite.
But can Russia really afford to continue a long -term war?
It is a complex question. Since the conflict began, the West has bet that the penalties against Russia they would have it hindrance in his war enterprise. 3 and a half years after the start of the war, however, the Russian economy is not perfect but has shown to know hold.
In short, Moscow managed to circumvent these penalties: Now there are countries like China and India, but also Asian and African states, which are buying gases and oil from Russia, going to fill the void left by the Europeans. Precisely for this reason, it is possible that Russia can continue with the conflict both in the short and in the medium term.
And before Moscow chapters, unfortunately, the collapse of Ukraine. This is because, at the moment, what is missing from Kiev are above all soldiers: Russia manages to enlist every month 30,000 soldiers volunteers. On the contrary, Ukraine is no longer managing to replace the fallen, there are no more voluntary soldiers and the country can no longer defend yourself.
The West is continuing to send weapons and funding for the war, but what is starting to miss Ukraine is precisely the military personnel To physically fight on the front.
Immediately after his election, US President Donald Trump tried to mediate between the parties. Now things have changed: is it possible that other mediators intervene, such as Turkish President Erdogan?
Surely Erdogan He managed to obtain some results: Turkey recently also hosted the first two rounds of the new negotiations, made possible thanks to the election of Trump.
In my opinion, however, there is not so much need for a mediator Among the parties, also because the points are very clear: either it is accepted that Russia is winning the war and therefore it is given what is asked, of course preserving the independence of Ukraine.
Or, you have to have the courage to do what no western country seems to want: physically enter the war against Russia To support Ukraine. Since this is highly unlikely, in my opinion the only possible solution is to induce Ukraine to accept territorial losses and renounce the entry into NATO, instead opening the doors of theEuropean Union and financing their reconstruction.
So in your opinion it is unlikely that Ukraine will become part of NATO?
The possibility that Ukraine will become part of NATO seems to me to excludeboth for the opposition of Russia (which is precisely at the basis of this war), but also because the United States themselves have discarded This option for the moment. On the contrary, the potential entry into the European Union constitutes a condition that Russia it could acceptprovided that Ukraine’s neutrality is maintained.
Europe has launched a massive rearmament plan with the aim of discouraging “any armed attacks”: at this point Moscow is a threat to our safety?
Certainly Putin can perceive this rearmament European as one threatbut it must be borne in mind that it will take years before the rearmament becomes effective, at least a decade.
In any case, I believe that Russia, however, does not constitute No threat to Europe: There is no attack plan against European countries and Putin is not intended. This war began for a reason clear and precise: to prevent Ukraine from entering NATO, that Russia considers as a threat to its safety. In my opinion, anyone who talks about a Russian threat to Europe is wrong.
