The pact signed in Scotland 10 days ago between Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump seems to falter a few hours after the entry into force of the new American rates. The 15 percent omnicompression dice on European goods that arrive in the US customs could be questioned once again by the head of the White House.
Trump: “I will increase the duties on medicines at 250 percent”
Yesterday evening, the US President resumed to shake the spectrum of an increase in the rate, bringing it to 35 percent if the European Union will not keep faith with 600 billion promised investments. “They guaranteed us to do what we want. It is the only reason why I lowered the rates to 15 percent,” he warned the Trump, making the respite jumping and rekindling the tension also on the microchips and drugs recipient of new rates.
“I will start with a small tax, then I will bring it to 150 percent, finally to 250 percent,” explained Trump. Measures that could be announced within a week. With this tariff initiative, the head of the White House wants that pharmaceutical companies move their production to the United States, thus also guaranteeing an increase in jobs. Trump is also pushing companies to reduce drug prices.
Why do Trump want to hit the pharmaceutical sector?
But why do the US president want to impress a tightrope on drugs? The answer to this question comes with the reading of the US import data. The United States imported in 2024 drugs for a value of 212 billion dollars, mainly from Ireland (50.3 billion dollars), Switzerland (19 billion dollars), Germany (17.1 billion dollars), Singapore (15.3 billion dollars), India (12.5 billion dollars) and China (8 billion), according to an analysis of the data of the Census Bureau conducted by Wall Street Journal. Italy is seventh with over 10 billion exports. With the duties currently imposed by Trump, the pharmaceutical sector risks damage equal to 3.4 billion euros.
In the next few hours the pharmaceutical sector will receive a clearer response, also because the United States are conducting an investigation pursuant to article 232 of the trade Expansion Act, to verify whether the imports of pharmaceutical products represent a threat to national security of the United States. The results of the investigation could guide and justify any tariff measures that the administration could adopt. At the end of the analysis (whose date has not yet been set), the Trump administration could impose high duties on medicines imported from third countries. But, explained a high EU official, Brussels received the insurance that the rates will not exceed 15 percent “omnicompression” agreed by Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump on the Golf courts overlooking the Firth of Clyde, in the sea of Ireland, owned by the US President.
Brussels: “The text of the agreement ready for 95 percent”
The uncertainty, however, reigns sovereign, even if the discussions on the joint US-EU declaration are “rather ahead” and the text is practically “ready at 90-95 percent”, specified a source of Brussels. Although devoid of binding value and still without an official date, the EU-USA declaration will still define the first mobile borders of the new transatlantic map, also tracing the perimeter of the initial exemptions on the threshold of 15 percent.
Among the first to glimpse lightening, the automotive will be: to concretize the commitment of the Head of the White House to reduce the duties from 27.5 to 15 percent, a new executive order will be needed – distinct from the one signed on July 31st in force from 7 August – to which the EU on this still looks with confidence, certain of a turning point coming “very soon”. Brussels then reiterates “determined to fight on each individual product” deemed strategic, sector by sector, to snatch zero duties or at least the treatment of the most favored nation, equal to 4.8 percent. The planes and their components will be the first to benefit from it and will already find their place in the joint text. For everything else – from wine to liqueurs, to medical devices and chemicals – you will need patience in a negotiation that will take “probably months” to define the final agreement. A game in which Italy intends to assert its priorities, starting from the agri -food.
The big pharmaceuticals that invest in the USA
A blow to the European pharmaceutical sector (and therefore Italian) could also lead to negative consequences for American citizens. It is highly unlikely that American pharmaceutical production can fill the void left by European goods that do not arrive in the States due to the duties. And to start new plants takes many years. But some big names are already moving in this direction, putting on the agenda several multimiliard investments in US production: for example, Astrazeneca has engaged 50 billion dollars to expand its American activities; Johnson & Johnson is investing $ 55 billion in production and research in the USA, while Eli Lilly has declared that he will invest $ 27 billion to build four new production plants in the United States. According to two sector analysts, the planned investments exceed in total $ 250 billion.
A complex and articulated global supply chain
However, according to experts, a movement of production within US borders will also not reduce the dependence of the United States on foreign sources for essential pharmaceutical and medicinal ingredients. It is also unlikely that this translates into a reduction in costs for American consumers. The pharmaceutical industry is in fact a global network, with finished ingredients and drugs produced in different locations all over the world. The economic costs of the production of branded and generic drugs vary considerably and the price that the US consumer pays ultimately is determined by multiple factors, such as profit margins.
Although there is an increase in production in the United States – as desired by Trump – pharmaceutical companies could continue to pay some rates if they import pharmaceutical ingredients from other countries. However, it should be emphasized that for some time, both American pharmaceutical companies and foreigners have produced many drugs and invest in the United States. To pay the highest price will therefore be patients and sick, who will continue to need their daily therapies, regardless of the origin of the drugs.
