Italy risks lose up to 20% of the surfaces of their own beaches by 2050and about i45% within ithe 2100. This is one of the alarms launched from Italian Geographical Society in the XVII relationship “Submerged Landscapes”, published last October 2025. The estimates take into account global climate scenarios and high vulnerability of the Italian coasts, widely affected by processes of erosion coastalaggravated by a poor protection environmental over the last century and by a strong pressure tourist. Among the areas most at risk are the Upper Adriatic, the Gargano coast in Puglia, various stretches of the Tyrrhenian coast (between Tuscany and Campania), and the areas of Cagliari and Oristano.
Italian beaches at risk: consequences and main causes
The picture outlined by the report “Landscapes Submerged” from the Italian Geographical Society It’s quite alarming. According to forecasts, Italy risks losing approximately 20% of its beaches by 2050 because of thesea level rise. The percentage could reach 45% in 2100when almost all regions will have lost at least a third of their coasts. Among the most affected areas stand out the Sardinia (Oristano and Cagliari), with an estimated loss of around 38% in 2050 and beyond 70% in 2100, the Friuli-Venezia GiuliaThe Lazio and the Campaniawhere almost the 60% of beaches could be submerged by 2100. These estimates are based on a global scenario of the progress of the climate crisis which foresees a gradual stabilization and reduction of emissions gas greenhouse by 2100, reaching a planetary radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m²in line with the commitments made at international level. This is one of the most popular scenarios currently optimisticas well as the most likely.
THE’marine entrance will have an immense environmental and social impact. Salt pans, swamps And lagoons they risk losing further half of their surface, with the consequent disappearance of important ones niches ecological. More than 10% of coastal agricultural landincluding rice fieldswould be threatened both by sea level rise and by the processes of salinization of the soils. About 800,000 people, who now live in areas below sea level, may be forced to relocate.
How did we get to this point?
The elevation eustaticor the global rise in sea levels, constitutes, without a shadow of a doubt, the triggering factor of the loss of coastal surface, but it’s not there predisposing cause. In fact, the report highlights how high vulnerability of the Italian coasts derives, in large part, from the phenomena of erosion coastalamplified by the forte pressure anthropic on the coasts. According to the data ISPRA of 2021about the 18% of the surface of the Italian low beaches disappeared between 2006 and the 2019. Projections estimate that by 2050 about the 7th0% of the beaches Italians will be affected by erosion phenomena.
Decades of studies have highlighted how the current coastal crisis is the result of an insufficient one protection of the coasts by regional governments and national policies which, starting from the 1950s, have promoted planning aimed at promoting the mass tourism and the industrial and port activities, rather than the protection of the coastal environment, reports the Italian Geographical Society.
Interventions by reclamation And accommodation hydraulicsit smoothing from the dunes and the construction of works rigid aimed at stabilizing the coastline and promoting access to the beaches have transformed the coastal environment, altering its balances natural. Added to these are the upstream anthropic processes, such as the construction of dams and the diversion of water courseswhich have drastically reduced the sediment supply along the coast, making the processes essential nourishment near the start of the summer season.
THE’coastal urbanizationthe cementification and land occupation, often abusive and uncontrolled, they have a strong responsibility in the current vulnerability of the Italian coasts. The report highlights how the consumption Of soilunderstood as the annual increase in artificial cover, is particularly high in coastal areas, mainly due to the tourist pressure that promotes the construction of hotels, villages and holiday homes, car parks, swimming pools, roads and other infrastructures. According to ISTAT data from 2019, municipalities with at least 50% of the located surface less than 10 km from the coast they occupy approximately the 16% of the national territory, but they generate beyond the 53% of total tourism. Analyzing the coastal areas in detail, the tourist density is up to five times higher than in non-coastal areas.
Similarly, the port and industrial use of the coasts has led to a drastic transformation of the landscape, causing land consumption, destruction of ecosystemsincrease in traffic e pollution. Almost a quarter of the territory located within 300 meters of the coastline is now covered by structures artificialwith particularly alarming peaks in Liguria (47%) and in Marche (45%).
Among the predisposing factors of natural origin there are, of course, those induced by climate change including, above all, the increasing drought they events meteorological extremes which have drastically altered the cycles hydrological upstream, with significant consequences on the sediment transport dynamics and the volumes of water reaching the sea.
How do we get out of this: possible solutions
The report proposes various strategies to reverse the trend and mitigate the effects of the coastal crisis, all sharing the same objective: restore The balances natural And reduce anthropization and coastal urbanization. In fact, artificial barriers and protection works, although offering defense in many regions today, do not represent permanent solutions. Experts therefore invite us to encourage renaturalization of the coasts and to enhance its natural ability to adapt to environmental changes.
At the same time, the report highlights the importance of dialogue between different people levels institutionalsuch as municipalities, provinces, ministries and basin authorities, since success can only be achieved through one management integrated and interventions structured And coordinated.
