One of the most immediate consequences of the tensions between the United States-Israel and Iran concerns the transportation of petroleum and refined fuels. The most critical junction is lo Strait of Hormuzone of the most important passages for energy transport: in fact, about a fifth of global oil passes through here. While Europe does not import huge quantities of crude oil directly from the Gulf, it is significantly dependent on refined products. According to theInternational Energy Agency (IEA), a significant share of the fuel dedicated to aviation (the so-called jet fuel) used in European airports comes from refineries located right in the area of Persian Gulf. This ensures that any blockages in the Strait of Hormuz not only stop the petroliumbut also the supply chain of ready-to-use fuels. And it is precisely this that makes the supply system more vulnerable.
Because in Italy some petrol stations remained without fuel
At the end March 2026, in Italy reports of dispensers without fuel. The main cause was not the lack of oil: according to the Ministry of Business and Made in Italy, the problem was above all logistics and linked to consumer behavior. The Italian Government has introduced a cut of excise duties (around 24.4 cents/litre) with the decree of 23 March, but only on 60% of distributors immediately applied this tariff. Consumers have focused on these distributorscreating demand peaks sudden. An average distributor has tanks of 15,000 to 30,000 litres: if demand doubles in a few days, the system goes into crisis. So there is no shortage fuel supplies – which in Italy they at least cover 90 days – but the adequate means and logistics to distribute them quickly. What looks like a running out of fuel therefore generates a domino effect: the fear of increases in fuel prices generates a rush to the distributors, from here a sudden demand is generated which makes the tanks empty. This in turn causes delays in tankersleading to temporary closures. It is the same mechanism observed in other crises, as also explained by the European Commission’s energy security reports. Once peak demand has passed, logistics generally tends to normalize within a few days.
The case of the Rong Lin Wan: the last ship before the blockade
The story of the is emblematic tanker Rong Lin Wanapproximately 250 meters long, started on February 26 from Kuwait and headed to Europe. She managed to cross it Strait of Hormuz shortly before the blockade imposed by‘Iran, effectively becoming one of the last supplies headed towards Europe. Data from maritime tracking, like those provided by Marine Traffic, clearly show how much they are fragile and dependent from a few junctions energy routes global. If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz were to be prolonged, l‘impact it would be immediate: less fuel available means fewer flights. The airlines are therefore already preparing emergency plans, because – as also underlined byInternational Air Transport Association – the sector is extremely sensitive to the availability of jet fuel. Europe imports beyond 40% of the necessary jet fuel, and much of it comes from the Gulf: if supplies are interrupted for weeks, i flights will have to be scaled back. According to analysis ofEuropean Union Aviation Safety Agency and of IATAa prolonged scenario could lead to: numerous summer flights cancelled and significant increase in prices of tickets.
The European Commission’s countermeasures: less consumption and more renewables
The real risk is living in a energy system more and more unstable: recent crises, such as that of Hormuz, show that a blockade in a strategic point of global trade or a sudden increase in demand is enough to put under pressure the entire system. In this context, the real challenge is not how much fuel you have available, but how much it is the network that distributes it is resilient. And it is precisely on this fragility that the future of energy is based. Faced with the ongoing crisis, the European Commission has invited Member States to reduce energy consumption, promoting:
- the smart workingwhere possible
- reduction of car journeys, preferring public transport o sustainable mobility (bicycles, scooters)
- reduction of flights not essential
- acceleration on renewable energy
These measures do not solve the problem in the short term, but serve to reduce the structural dependence on geopolitically unstable areas.
Are we really in danger of running out of fuel?
The question many consumers are asking is whether we risk it really of run out of fuel. The answer is: in the short term, no. There is no immediate risk of running out of fuel Europe or in Italy. What can happen, however, is one temporary shortage in some areas rather than others, depending on the logistics involved, further price increases and possible transport disruptions, above all planes. The real problem is not the global quantity of petrolium available, but the fragility from the supply chains. As long as strategic hubs like it Strait of Hormuz remain unstable, the system remains exposed to shock sudden. As for Italy, the problem was transportation and distribution rather than lack of fuel
According to international standards (also defined by the IEA), the strategic stocks they cover at least 90 days of consumption, as expected for the member countries of theInternational Energy Agency they are obliged. These reserves are precisely for manage sudden crisessuch as wars, logistical blockades or market shocks and can be released gradually to stabilize supply. This is one of the main reasons why a “run out of fuel” scenario in the short term is extremely unlikely. Furthermore, the fuel price it doesn’t just depend on physical availabilitybut also from market expectations. According to some analysis of World Bankthe geopolitical tensions in production areas they can generate strong oscillations even without real interruptions to supplies. This explains why prices can rise quickly even when oil continues to circulate: the markets see the risk even before shortage.
