While war often explodes over a spark, peace is a matter of days, weeks and often months. The signing of the Trump draft by Israel and Hamas must therefore be read as the first step in a long, tortuous and far from immediate process. But it’s a step that exists. Eighty years of conflicts cannot be erased with a signature, and the traumas of these last two years – the pogrom of 7 October on the one hand and the sixty thousand deaths in Gaza on the other – have generated grief and resentment that will not be easy to heal.

Those who have been overwhelmed by it, directly or indirectly, will bear scars that will last generations: we are talking about hundreds of thousands of people.

Truce, not yet peace

Yet, the direction appears clear. Upon closer inspection, it was already the case in recent days: many signs pointed to a prospect of truce, if not yet peace. Not because Israel or Hamas wanted it, but because no one had the strength to continue anymore. Hamas had been substantially defeated – not eliminated, but weakened – and the Palestinian population, exhausted, now viewed the organization with distrust. Israel was also exhausted: two years of very costly war in terms of human lives (over a thousand soldiers killed since 2023), economic resources and growing international isolation, which also translated into losses.

Let us now prepare ourselves for new stop-and-gos, for moments in which everything will seem on the verge of falling apart, when the table will go back as in an eternal game of goose, and when the voices of those who will try to sabotage the path will inevitably be raised. From this perspective, the agreement represents a real turning point. There are still many open points, but the positive ones far outweigh them.

Isolate Tehran

The real news is the agreement of the main players in the region: Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia. But also the three most populous Muslim states in the world: Indonesia, Pakistan and Türkiye. A cohesive Arab-Sunni front was formed around the idea of ​​isolating Hamas and reviving the spirit of the Abraham Accords (those signed in 2020 by Trump with the Emirates and Bahrain to normalize relations with Israel, with Saudi Arabia ready to follow them), which pushed Hamas to accept. In doing so, Tehran, the great sponsor of Hamas and, probably, the real loser of this endgame – if it really is the endgame – was further isolated.

Which Palestinian Authority

It remains to be understood how to reinsert the Palestinian National Authority into the picture, a great absentee during these two years of crisis, but an indispensable interlocutor for any future of Gaza and for the idea – still “phantom” today – of a Palestinian state. With Abu Mazen now at the end of his career and a leadership void evident, a huge question arises.

Netanyahu at the crossroads

Another question mark concerns Israel. Will Tel Aviv really respect its commitments? Recent history leads to some skepticism: the idea of ​​two states has always been opposed in practice. And then there is Netanyahu. If he brings all the hostages home he will be able to say he has completed the mission; but the shadows over the intelligence flaws before October 7, which were never clarified or paid for, and the brutal conduct of the war that isolated Israel in the world, could re-emerge. It is not excluded that Netanyahu will end up overwhelmed by an offensive from the internal left, ready to regroup to cut off the ultranationalist wing.

For now, however, it is right to be happy with this result: a truce that stops the massacres and, as a side effect, contributes to lowering the tone of a debate on Gaza in Italy too which had become overheated beyond measure in recent months.