The already creaking coalition in government in Germany risks completely imploding. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is doing everything he can to try to keep together the so-called ‘traffic light’ executive, named after the colors red, yellow and green which represent the three parties that compose it: Social Democrats, Liberals and Greens.
But now almost no one believes that the legislature will reach its natural conclusion with the elections in September 2025. In fact, the three parties, after the disappointing electoral results of the elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg, are already redefining their positions in view of the future electoral campaign, with the leaders barely speaking to each other, and this is creating ever greater friction.
The growing rift became more apparent on Friday evening, when a Liberal position paper calling for a fundamental economic overhaul that contradicts government policies was leaked.
The proposals of the liberals
The 18-page economic document was written by Christian Lindner, leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and German Finance Minister. The politician presented a series of new proposals to boost the economy, including tax cuts and the postponement of some climate policies.
Specifically, he wants to cut the benefits linked to citizenship income, cut corporate taxes by two points, eliminate a special “solidarity tax” intended to finance the Laedners of the East who have been in difficulty since the time of German reunification and implement a substantial reverse on climate policies that are dear to ecologists: all demands that his coalition partners are unlikely to accept.
Scholz runs for cover
The general secretary of the SPD, Lars Klingbeil, called Lindner’s proposals “the wrong approach”, claiming that they contain “no strategy, no plan”, and have made the Greens furious, given that the ideas put forward in black and white they are in stark contrast to the vision presented by the Minister of Economy, Robert Habeck, a member of the Greens. To try to avoid the worst, Scholz will meet with Lindner and Habeck in an attempt to find common ground, while other meetings are scheduled for the next few days.
The Sueddeutsche Zeiutng recalled that in 1982 it was a similar initiative that decreed the end of Helmut Schmidt’s social-liberal government. Except that at the time, the newspaper underlines, the liberals could count on allying themselves with the conservatives: today, however, there are no numbers for such an option. The FDP is languishing in the polls at 4%, below the Bundestag threshold, after practically disappearing in the local elections in the Eastern Laender.
Coalition on fire
“At the moment no one wants to venture a prediction on when exactly the next elections will be held. But there is no denying that the coalition is on fire right now”, commented the co-president of the Social Democrats Saskia Esken, in Hamburg, at a party convention , where Lindner’s proposals were rejected outright. “In general, the points you listed cannot be implemented in the coalition,” he cut short.
The German economy contracted last year and narrowly avoided recession this year. Consumer and business confidence is low and the German export model has been put to the test by China’s slowdown and sanctions on Russia. What could keep the coalition together is the US presidential elections. If former President Donald J. Trump is re-elected, the challenges his leadership will bring to European trade could end up uniting the fractious allies in Berlin. But not for long.
