The political elections of Sunday 28 September in Moldova take on a value that goes far beyond national borders. The vote will decide not only the composition of the 101 seats of Parliament, but above all the geopolitical orientation of a republic stuck between Romania and Ukraine: on the one hand the European Union, on the other, Russia.
The party of action and solidarity (PAS) of the president Maia Sandu, who has made European integration its flag, is facing the patriotic blockade, a philorussian alliance led by the former president Igor Dodon, supported by socialists and communists. In the 2021 elections, the PAS had conquered the absolute majority, but the polls today oscillate between 34 percent and 48%, far from the numbers of the time. The missed reforms weigh, the economic impact of the war in Ukraine and the distrust of a largely undecided electorate.
Russian disinformation to influence the vote in Moldova
The patriotic block is given between 21 percent and 36% and aims to ally with similar forces such as our party (PN) by Renato Ustatii, accredited between 8 percent and 12%. A key role could be up to the alternative block, apparently Europeanist, but led by figures close to Dodon, including the former mayor of Chisinau, Ion Ceban, and the former premier Ion Chicu.
The election campaign was played on extreme tones. SANDU has spoken of “sovereignty, independence, integrity and European future” of the country, denouncing the massive Moscow intervention in the electoral process. On the other hand, Russian propaganda has released apocalyptic scenarios, coming to evoke a European military employment in Moldova in coordination with NATO.
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The stakes are amplified by the strategic position of the country: in the south the NATO base of Costanza, destined to become the largest in Europe; In the east, the Transnistria, a separatist Enclave Filorussiana which houses the Cobasna base, with the largest storage of ammunition on the continent. In the South the autonomous region of Gagauzia is added, also a pro -Filorussa. And again: the Moldovan ports on the Danube, which have become vital for the export of Ukrainian wheat, and the total energy dependence on Gazprom, which controls Moldovagaz.
The vote takes place in one of the poorest country in Europe, where in 2022 absolute poverty reached 31 percent. Moldova welcomed over one and a half million Ukrainian refugees, equal to half of its population, fueling tensions and fears that Russia tries to ride.
If no one will get the majority, the perspective of a “Georgian” technical government – with an ambiguous foreign policy, suspended between Brussels and Moscow – does not appear unrealistic. But in the center remains a crucial question: will Moldova choose Europe or will it return to the Russian orbit?
