“We will be judged by the numbers.” The sentence, pronounced by diplomatic sources on the eve of the summit of EU heads of government, concerns migrants and reflects what now really matters for Italy. And for Europe. Not the methods of reception, not the respect for human rights, not the commitment made to undermine the root causes of the constant flows of millions of people. Just the numbers. Irregular entries and concessions to asylum seekers will have to drastically decrease, while repatriations increase.

The two centers just inaugurated in Albania, fruit of the treaty between Tirana and Rome, serve this purpose. And it is on this point that Giorgia Meloni and Ursula von der Leyen have once again become allies. The thread that binds the two leaders had thinned a bit this summer, when German politics had (at least on paper) excluded the far right from the government of Europe, preferring socialists and liberals in the majority. A smart move, which is allowing the president of the European Commission to make right-wing policies with the support of the left, center and ecologists.

How the flirtation between Meloni and von der Leyen works

The letter in which von der Leyen praises the agreement between Italy and Albania is the manifesto of a renewed understanding, which blossomed in the last legislature and flourished again in this second mandate. It is the roles of this courtship that remain unclear. Is Ursula really chasing Giorgia, asking other member states to imitate more restrictive policies on migrants? Or is the representative of the European People’s Party letting Italy do the “dirty work” and then taking the credit if the Albania model were to work, but abandoning the situation (as he is already doing with large parts of the Green Deal) if the hubs of Should Shengjin and Gjader not work or be legally challenged? At the moment Rome feels it has its back covered, but only the facts will establish if and how this scheme will work.

The great fear of the ballot box

The model of external hubs for migrants desired by the Prime Minister is a trailblazer for the rest of Europe and will be proposed at the summit on 17 October in Brussels. Everyone likes the idea of ​​”dumping” migrants onto third countries, especially if they are “friendly” and democratic territories, about which NGOs and activists may have less to say than, for example, Libya and Turkey. In Brussels there is talk of a “great convergence” of the 27 on the issues of migration and of the crackdown, desired by right-wing and left-wing governments, by Northern and Southern European states. All lined up. Why? “Public opinion is more frightened by 600 people arriving by sea in a catastrophic way than by 3,000 in an orderly manner through legal channels”, they say from Rome. The ballot boxes, as we have seen, punish the lack of control and management capacity. And no government now wants to pay this price.

What are the migrant centers in Albania for?

Italy is betting on centers in Albania for two functions: firstly to prevent those who are not entitled to refugee status from entering, secondly to exploit them to manage repatriations. Rejected asylum seekers will be able to leave them in Albanian limbo for 18 months. Then they either return or will still have to be transported to Italy. Rome prefers to take the risk. So does everyone agree on these “migrant hubs”? Not exactly.

Migrant centers in Albania are a useless (and harmful) waste of money

At the summit of the European Council, Germany, the Netherlands and some Nordic countries would like more guarantees on “internal migration” in the conclusions, emphasizing the components that weigh on the countries of first entry. See under Italy, Spain and Greece and they are pushing for “full application” of the Dublin rules. In essence: it is good to move border controls outside the EU, but you must not let migrants who manage to enter escape. At stake is the permanence of Schengen freedom of movement, which has been called into question on several occasions.

The EU is divided on everything else

And the rest of the summit? Geopolitics doesn’t smile, nor does the economy. Russia threatens nuclear power, Zelensky is constantly knocking on European capitals to raise cash (aid and weapons), Orbán as usual will get in the way to lend a hand to Vladimir Putin. The Middle East is on fire, with fuses scattered everywhere (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards), while Israel, in addition to perpetrating a genocide in Gaza, is even targeting UN peacekeepers (including the Italian ones). The response of European governments is weak and slow, as underlined by Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Diplomatic Representative. European companies, clearly behind on the energy transition, are laying off workers and throwing workers and markets into panic. The 27 member states all agree on the premises of the Draghi report on competitiveness, but as regards the measures to be adopted, everyone remains in their own little boat sailing alone. In short, on other issues the “great convergence” is missing and we are simply crossing our fingers while waiting for the results of the White House elections. Once again, European governments only know how to speak loudly with migrants.