There is a date circled in red on the calendar of the citizens of Moldova: it is October 20, 2024, the day on which the inhabitants of the small country of around 2.5 million, sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania, will be called to a double election of extraordinary importance: on the one hand, the presidential elections, on the other, a constitutional referendum which could establish the country’s accession to the European Union as an irrevocable strategic objective.
Ukraine (and Moldova) one step closer to joining the EU in record time
Moldova officially launched its dual electoral campaign last August 1, although the decision to call Moldovan citizens to decide whether to chart a European path was announced last December by incumbent president Maia Sandu.
The strong Russian influence in the country
The war in Ukraine has further complicated the situation in the country, given the existence of the separatist region of Transnistria, where Russian troops are still present. It is not surprising, therefore, that relations with Russia, historically important for economic and energy reasons, have deteriorated rapidly. These aspects have reinvigorated the pro-European spirit of President Sandu.
But if pro-European rhetoric has found broad consensus in urban areas and among the younger generations, in rural areas and in autonomist regions, such as Gagauzia and Transnistria, pro-Russian sentiment remains strong.
Nonetheless, the incumbent president is the main favorite for the presidential elections, ahead of the other 16 candidates. In office since 2020, Sandu is known as the pro-European leader who has led Moldova on a path of reforms oriented towards European integration. Now he has decided to run as an independent but his will be an uphill journey. Precisely due to the fragmentation of the electorate and the high number of candidates, many of whom represent the pro-Russian or Eurosceptic front, it will be difficult for him to break through in the first round.
The one who could put a spanner in the works could be Alexandr Stoianoglo, former prosecutor general of Moldova, supported by the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM), which aims to strengthen ties with Russia, openly opposing pro-European politics.
The referendum for EU membership
In addition to choosing the leader who will lead the small country for the next four years, Moldovans will also have to vote on whether to amend the Constitution to include the path to joining the European Union as a strategic objective of the state. When faced with a simple but meaningful question, two scenarios open up. If the “yes” vote for a constitutional revision were to triumph, the Moldovan government would obtain a strong popular mandate to continue negotiations with Brussels, accelerating the accession process already started with candidate status. In the event of a negative outcome in the referendum, the Chisnau government would suffer a serious blow and would see its years-long efforts to guarantee the process of integration into the European Union slow down, if not disappear.
Russia fits into this context, exploiting any vulnerability or weakness to derail Moldova’s internal reforms and integration with the EU. The incumbent president and presidential candidate finds herself facing a dual and difficult challenge.
