The last few days have seen a sudden worsening of the relations between China and Japanstarting from a speech given in parliament by the Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichiwith statements that triggered a diplomatic dispute between the two Asian countries. In his speech, Takaichi suggested that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could be push Tokyo into a military response: These remarks, and his refusal to retract them, have fueled the anger of Beijing, which has long claimed sovereignty over the island.
The conflict then evolved, moving from a purely verbal plan to Beijing’s warning to its citizens to avoid travel and studies in Japan: Tokyo tried to ease tensions sending high-ranking Foreign Ministry official Masaaki Kanai for talks in China, but in the last few hours Sino-Japanese relations have deteriorated have rapidly deterioratedwith possible significant consequences.
China-Japan clash: what triggered the crisis
During a parliamentary session of November 7opposition MP Hiroshi Ogushi of the Constitutional Democratic Party asked Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi what could be considered “a situation that threatens the survival of Japan”, that is, a scenario in which a attack against an allied country it would jeopardize Japanese security to the point of justifying military intervention, even if the country was not directly attacked. This is an extremely significant point, considering that Japan adopted a Constitution after the Second World War renounce the war as a means of resolving international disputes and allows the armed forces to be maintained only for defensive purposes.
Faced with this question, Sanae Takaichi gave the example of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. If an emergency in the Taiwan Strait involved the deployment of “warships and the use of force, then this could constitute a situation that threatens Japan’s survivalwhichever way you look at it,” the prime minister said, adding that an attack on US warships sent to Taiwan could require military intervention from Tokyo to defend itself and its ally, the United States.
The prime minister later said these remarks were “hypothetical”, but she refused recant his wordsarguing that they were in line with the government’s position. Before assuming leadership, Takaichi was highly critical of China and its military buildup in the Asia-Pacific region. He visited Taiwan and called for closer security cooperation with the island. His statements signaled more orientation nationalist and conservative of the current administration, as well as its more rigid stance towards Beijing.
These comments sparked a swift reaction from Chinese media and officials. In an editorial on November 11, China’s state broadcaster CCTV called Takaichi’s statements “extremely malicious in nature and impact,” saying they “crossed the line” toward China. According to the Japanese chief of staff, on Sunday the ships of the Chinese coast guard they spent several hours in Japanese territorial waters.
The spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Mao Ninginstead urged Tokyo to respect the commitments made in official document signed between China and Japan in 1972which established the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries. With this agreement, Japan recognized the People’s Republic of China as China’s only legitimate government, pledging to respect Beijing’s position on Taiwan. However, while respecting this treaty, Tokyo’s position regarding the island is deliberately ambiguous: Japan does not formally declare that Taiwan is under sovereignty of Beijing and maintains unofficial reports with Taipei, including economic exchanges and technological and security cooperation.
Relations between China and Japan: crisis on the horizon?
The tensions between China and Japan they are nothing new: periodically, in fact, the two capitals have found themselves faced with moments of diplomatic conflict. In the 2012for example, anti-Japanese protests broke out in many Chinese cities over the disputed islands Senkaku/Diaoyua group of small islands in the East China Sea that are the subject of territorial disputes between Japan and China. In the 2017the Japanese hotel chain APA Group came under fire for books written by its president that denied the Nanjing massacre, a war crime committed by the Japanese army during the invasion of China.
In general, after 1945 relations between Tokyo and Beijing were often marked by moments of crisis, under the weight of Japanese war pasttheir respective territorial ambitions, economic issues and Japanese policies on Taiwan. Takaichi’s statements, however, represented the first time a sitting Japanese leader had explicitly linked a conflict in Taiwan to the survival of Japan and a potential intervention by Tokyo.
Now, the diplomatic dispute could have negative repercussions on the Japanese economywith Beijing advising its citizens, among other things, to avoid travel to the Japanese country. China is the main source of tourism for Japan and this crisis could hit the travel sector hard: Chinese visitors represent approximately 25% of tourist traffic from abroad to Japan.
These economic threats are among the escalation tools that the Chinese government is ready to use to exploit its global weight: if a real trade conflictFor example, Japan may also be exposed to restrictions on exports of rare earths and critical minerals or to the imposition of export restrictions Japanese.
