The December 25, 2024 a occurred plane crash in Kazakhstan which continues to raise big questions: theEmbraer 190 of Azerbaijan Airlines, in service from Baku to Grozny, crashed near Aktau and from the first moments it was assumed that it was not a technical failure but a disaster caused by a surface-to-air missile. We therefore analyze the information at our disposal to clarify.
The plane crash in Kazakhstan: what happened
The flight departed from Baku at 07:55 (UTC+4), bound for Grozny, but heavy fog forced the crew to attempted landing three times without success. The commander then decided to divert the plane towards Makhachkala, but even there the prohibitive weather conditions forced a further change of destination towards Aktau. While heading towards Kazakhstan, the aircraft launched a signal of emergency (squawk 7700) at 09:35, reporting critical problems to the flight control system. The radars lost contact at 08:40, only to get back on track at 10:07, when the plane appeared off course off the Kazakh coast. After several failed attempts to stabilize for landing, the aircraft did so at 11.30am crash, exploding on impact. The right wing hit the ground, causing the aircraft to overturn and break into two main sections.
Possible causes of the plane crash in Kazakhstan
From the first reports, a sequence of events emerges that leads to a disturbing conclusion: the accident may not be the result of a normal technical accident. Damage observed on the wreck clearly shows signs consistent with a surface-to-air missile and available images highlight holes in the fuselage consistent with ballistic fragmentations.
The accident, among other things, is reminiscent of the tragic flight case MH17, shot down in 2014 by a Buk missile while flying over Ukraine. As in that case, visible damage on the Embraer 190 indicates a possible missile impact, which would have hit vital areas such as the tail section. This part hosts fundamental flight surfaces – such as the horizontal and vertical stabilizer – which in the case of the Embraer 190 are managed by hydraulic systems and fly-by-wire. The compromise of these components would have made it impossible to control the aircraft.
Further evidence to support this hypothesis includes the leakage of oxygen masks, suggesting a sudden depressurization, probably caused by an explosion and the holes in the fuselage. Furthermore, GPS jamming recorded in the area further complicates the analysis of the final stages of the flight, but is a significant clue in an area known for military activity and illicit operations.
The plane was a target: the investigators’ hypothesis and Russia’s role
Independent investigative sources have now confirmed that the flight was shot down deliberately from a surface-to-air missile. The analysis of the radar traces shows an involuntary deviation from the route, while the debris collected presents metal splinters compatible with military explosives. The presence of damaged parts that appear to have been penetrated by shrapnel is consistent with the type of fragmentation produced by a missile.
This area of the Caspian Sea is the scene of geopolitical tensions, involving Russian interests and local militias. Although Russian authorities initially attributed the accident to a bird strike or an exploded oxygen cylinder, ballistic evidence suggests otherwise. Furthermore, some experts believe that the missile may have been a SA-11 Buk or a portable MANPADs system.
The geopolitical implications
This accident is not just a technical tragedy, but a possible silent declaration of war. Break down a civil aircraft in a conflict area it is a very serious act with implications on a global scale. If Russian or local militias responsibility is confirmed, the diplomatic repercussions will be enormous. However, as demonstrated in the MH17 case, the road to the truth may be long and winding.
