After months of tensions and a commercial war that has destabilized global markets, the United States and China seem closer to a respite for mutual duties. This was confirmed on Wednesday 11 June the US president Donald Trump. According to the first rumors of an agreement still very unclear in its details, the main points are a return of 55% duties For Chinese goods imported into the United States and 10% for the US directive ones in China. Also, Beijing should suspend the ban on importing rare earth in the United States And the Washington government will make it possible for Chinese students again to enroll and attend US universities.
As an US official explained, the 55% duties are the sum of a 10% basic 10% that the Trump administration has established for the goods of all the countries of the world that enter the United States, of another 20% reserved for China because it is accused together with Mexico and Canada of not contrasting the trafficking of Fenanyl and the substances necessary to produce this drug and a further 25% of duties of Trump and maintained during the Biden presidency.
The skepticism of the markets
The possible agreement is the result of the negotiations launched on Monday 9 June between the secretary of the United States Treasury Scott Beesent and the Chinese vice premier He Lifeng, who met in London after Donald Trump’s phone call to President Xi Jinping of the previous week. Despite the optimism ostentatious by Trump and a partial confirmation of the Deputy Chinese trade, Li Chenggang, on the existence of a ready -made “in principle”, i Mercati reacted with great caution to the news of a possible agreement. The main reason is that, if it were accepted, it would be limited to reporting the situation before Liberation Day of April 2nd With which Trump announced his war of duties against the rest of the world. This uncertainty of the markets was also confirmed by the latest report of the World Bank, which has revised downward the global growth forecasts for 2025. At the moment, both contenders seem to have chosen tones lying down: as Bessent said during an audition of the United States Congress, “if China respects its part of the initial commercial agreement defined in Ginevra, then the rebalancing of the two largest economies of the world is world economies is possible”.
What Trump aims for: rare earth and chip at the center of the discussion
What is evident is that the United States, in full economic expansion, cannot afford a long -term commercial war with China. The reason is that while Washington has chosen the weapon of indiscriminate duties, that of the Chinese government is more surgical and has focused on a strategic sector such as the so -called rare eartha group of 17 metals necessary to produce most of the technology we use every day, from smartphones to electric cars, from the most recent armaments to armaments. At the moment, China controls between 80 and 90% of the world production of rare lands And its blocking and export limit can inflict a very hard blow to the western industry (and American in particular). For this reason, despite the high -sounding proclamations of Donald Trump and the most intransigent members of his administration, the United States are forced to deal with China if they do not want to risk a serious recession.
