Among the pillars of anti-EU propaganda is the construction of a myth: pre-euro Italy, painted as a golden age of growth and well-being, guaranteed by a “sovereign” national currency. A dazzling Italy, which in reality never existed, but useful for attributing every difficulty to the European Union, erasing the global crises and structural problems that precede the eurozone by decades.

Thanks to Brexit, however, we can compare who left it and who is part of it, trying to understand whether the European Union is the cause of Italy’s woes or its salvation.

The myth of pre-euro Italy and the lesson of Brexit

Brexit, sold as an economic “liberation”, after more than 5 years is showing effects of the opposite sign. While maintaining zero tariffs thanks to the trade agreement with the EU, the United Kingdom has suffered the impact of non-tariff barriers: customs bureaucracy, certifications, controls and rules that have mainly affected businesses. The numbers speak for themselves: exports to the EU down by 18.6%, imports down by 23.7% and a trade deficit of £119 billion in 2024. The Office for Budget Responsibility also estimates a structural loss of around 4% of GDP, i.e. almost £100 billion a year, as a permanent reduction in economic potential.

To strengthen the picture there are data on investments and productivity. A study by the European Central Bank shows that Brexit has reduced new investments by around 9%, particularly those coming from the EU, held back by regulatory uncertainty and higher administrative costs. On a sector level, manufacturing was the most affected, with a decline in exports of 6.4% compared to 2021.

In essence, rising trade costs reduce demand, investment and capital accumulation, squeezing productivity. According to the Productivity Institute, the non-tariff barriers introduced by Brexit alone result in a permanent loss of 1.2% per capita output – a heavy cost for an economy that already has the weakest productivity growth in the G7.

The British case therefore demonstrates that leaving the single market does not restore sovereignty, but leads to impoverishment.

Nostalgia is terrible economic policy

Unlike the UK, Italy has faced recent shocks with the support of the European Union, and the turning point was the PNRR. The plan mobilizes approximately 235 billion euros between European funds and national co-financing in the period 2021–2027, equal to approximately 22% of GDP: a volume of investments that has provided the country with a buffer against stagnation and low productivity. According to the Confindustria Study Center, the Pnrr adds approximately one percentage point per year to growth: +0.8% in 2025 and +0.6% in 2026, transforming a scenario that, without the plan, would have been recessive or stagnant into a phase of moderate expansion. While London alone absorbs the costs of Brexit and the global crisis, Rome benefits from transfers and joint investments.

Despite administrative delays and complexities, Italy is showing a capacity to implement the PNRR that is higher than the European average. At the end of October 2025, 58.6 billion euros had been spent, equal to approximately 30% of the total resources, with 63% of the EU funds already collected compared to a European average of 48% and 43% of the objectives achieved, compared to 28% of comparable programs. The approval of the eighth tranche of 12.8 billion confirms a positive assessment by Brussels. These funds finance construction sites, digitalisation, green transition, healthcare and education. This is where anti-EU rhetoric clashes with facts: membership of the Union does not solve Italy’s problems, but provides resources that, outside the European Union, simply do not exist.

Europe does not save Italy, but without Europe Italy loses

In addition to the PNRR, Italy benefits from a structural advantage that anti-EU propaganda tends to remove: membership of the European single market as a growth multiplier. Intra-EU trade is around 60% higher than it would be under WTO rules alone and, for Italy, this means barrier-free access to 27 markets.

London remains dependent on European imports, but struggles to export, accumulating a deficit due to post-Brexit friction and without yet having found a credible way out of the crisis it triggered. It is no coincidence that in recent years the British government has initiated a pragmatic rapprochement with Brussels, with new sectoral agreements, the return to European research programs and Erasmus+: signals that recognize the need to mend ties with the EU to limit the economic damage. Meanwhile, while British attractiveness has waned, Italy has seen foreign investment grow by 48%, thanks to European stability, Pnrr and predictable rules.

The numbers say one simple thing: the EU is not the cause of Italy’s problems, but a space for growth.