The cease the fire between Israel and Iran He had an effect: the war started on 13 June seems to actually end. This was confirmed by their parts involved: Benjamin Netanyahu who celebrated the end of the war as “historic victory»For Israel, who” has eliminated two existential threats, that of the Iranian nuclear bomb and the one represented by the 20,000 ballistic missiles “of Tehran, while the Iranian president Masud Pezeshkian he declared concluded what will go down in history as “the 12 days war».
The ceased the fire had been proposed by Donald Trump on Tuesday morning: Iran should have stopped the attacks for 12 hours (from 6 to 18, Italian time) and, at that point, Israel would also have placed weapons for the following 12 hours. A few hours after the announcement, however, the President of the United States confirmed that both sides had violated the ceased the fireand then return to reiterate that it Stop the attacks it was in force again.
Peace between Iran, Israel and USA, therefore, seems officially started: it is still not clear why the respite has been reached like this quicklybut the theories are different, from the role of mediator carried out by the Emir of Qatar Al-Thaniup to Tehran’s decision to accept a truce because the position of theyatollah Ali Khamenei It had been identified by the United States and the Iranian military arsenal strongly reduced.
The violations of the ceased the fire proposed by Trump in the war between Israel and Iran
The ceased the fire had been proposed by Donald Trump And he should have come into force on Tuesday 24 June at 6 (Italian time): a few hours later, however, Israel He accused Iran of having violated the ceaseeven if the news had been immediately denial by Tehran’s government. At that point the President of the United States intervened directly, confirming that the ceased the fire had been violated by both sides and intimating to Tel Aviv to suspend any missile attacks against Iran: the situation has returned under control.
The tensions of the last few days, however, had made the possibilities of a respite In such short times, especially after the USA They intervened directly in the conflict by bombing three Iranian nuclear sites, causing a counterattack by Tehran who replied by hitting the American base of Al-Udeidin qatar.
After all, Trump conducted his election campaign with the promise of put an end to all wars: with the opening of a new conflict, the tenant of the White House was therefore losing consensus And he therefore needed to quickly resolve the situation.
In any case, after the closure of the Iranian front, Israel is continuing the war in the Gaza Strip And it does not seem intent on closing the conflict in a short time: only this morning the Israeli army has killed 31 people11 of which were in line to receive humanitarian aid. Yesterday the victims had been 86, with the total number of the dead who has now exceeded the 56,000.
As we came to the truce between Iran, Israel and the USA: the role of Qatar
According to what reported by the press agency Reutersshortly after the Iranian attack on the US military base of Al-Udeid, the President of the United States would have contacted the Emir of Qatar, Al-Thani, To communicate that Israel had accepted a proposal for truce, thus asking the government of Doha Of mediate To convince Iran to approve the fire.
The choice of Qatar it is not accidental: it is a country that has repeatedly held the role of mediator in recent years, both between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza War, and between Iran and the United States in 2023 and between Russia and Ukraine in 2022. His diplomatic role is partly linked to the country’s need to maintain a international prestigious position And, consequently, to contrast the hegemony of other states of the Persian Gulf, especially of Saudi Arabia. Also in this case, therefore, the intervention of Qatar as mediator It seems to have made its fruits.
But the fire may have accelerated the fire could also have been theidentification of Khamenei: already last week Donald Trump had confirmed that American intelligence had managed to identify the position of the Ayatollah, probably hidden in a secret bunker. At this point, it is possible that the United States have threatened to hit and kill the Iran supreme guidethus pushing Tehran’s government to accept one respite in the war against Israel.
Last, but not least, there is the question of weapons Still disposition of Iran: during the 12 days of war, Tehran launched about Israel about 550 ballistic missiles and 1,000 dronesmost of which have been intercepted and destroyed byIron Domethe Israeli defense system. According to some estimates issued by the IDF, the Iranian military arsenal includes in total 2,500 ballistic missiles And several thousand drones: the Israeli attacks, then, would have destroyed about 1,000 missiles and another 25th ballistic missiles.
This means that, after the clashes, Iran would have had between 1,000 and 1,500 ballistic missiles and just 100 launchers: prolonging the war further, therefore, would have forced Tehran to ask armed support to allied countries such as the Russiaalready engaged on the Ukrainian front, with the risk of remaining without weapons powerful enough to counter Israel and the United States. In other words, Iran may have agreed to stop clashes to avoid reducing their bone arsenal.
