Calabria was “given” among the regions in the center -right orbit, and a Victory of Occhiuto would not have done much news. But the gap between the outgoing governor and the challenger surprised most of the observers. Also because Tridico is yes non-resident in the region (he lives in Rome and has not been able to vote in the administrative elections) but at the same time he is a well-known character. Former President of INPS, candidate for the European Championships, is a well -known face, a frequent frequenor of talk and TV lounges, also known to those who do not habitually hang out with politics. But no, Occhiuto did not win but he won, and the margins of the affirmation are truly remarkable, strengthening the governor who in 2021 had obtained “only” 54 percent. Just this detachment between Occhiuto and the competitor, with everything that has been said on the wide field and after what happened in the Italian squares in recent days, some reflection, perhaps more than one, induces it.

In Calabria Occhiuto Tridico, flop of the wide field

First of all it should be noted that in Calabria there is no disjointed vote, a situation that generally rewards the vote of the lists, and called many of the Occhiuto lists were made better than those of Tridic, made up of mayors and well -known regional councilors.

In Calabria, the rooting of candidates is very important because good candidates mean packets of votes almost ad personam. The choice of people contributed to making a difference. We then add that the surprise of the vote decided at the last moment by the governor created many problems for the opposing team, who did not wait for him and did not have the opportunity to be ready as he wanted.

Once the local justifications are exhausted, we now move on to those of more general character. Such a remarkable detachment in the days after the demonstrations of the square for Gaza, but also close to the devastations that have occurred there (who is the fault that is not very interested in this location) cannot do not think even the influence of a factor-asceness even in the polls. And if a week in the Marche Ricci had failed, as he had hoped, to capitalize on any-gaza effect, in Calabria it almost seems that the-gaza effect was there, but on the contrary. In the sense that the squares have worked as a bogeyman for those moderates who are perhaps solidarity with the Palestinians, but who fear the excessive rise of tension, fear the unrest and the split windows. It is no coincidence that in Calabria, Forza Italia went very well, not only because it is the party of Occhiuto, but it is also the party that in the crisis of Gaza through Tajani’s action has reconciled humanity for the Palestinians with moderation. The squares are confirmed a very complicated tool to handle politically, which can arouse enthusiasm and hopes (and therefore bring votes) but which can also raise fears (and therefore the votes make them lose).

Such an important detachment is given above all to the Democratic Party some not easy reflections. The maximalist drift taken by the secretary, this being always in trailer, now of the CGIL now of the Cinquestelle, this one of his choosing apocalyptic tones (first there was the fascism alarm, then the pro-Palestine alarm) to the point, in the flottilla affair, to ignore the appeal of common sense of President Mattarella and the patriarch of Jerusalem does not attract your voters (even those “in sleep”) If they ever head towards churches where those predictions are more credible (M5S and AVS) and at the same time away those moderates who either do not vote or feel more in tune with the calm and quiet tones of Foza Italia.

Schlein and some those closest to her think that the elections are won with clear, very extreme words, because given the abstention so high are “yours” that make you get into the percentages. The results in the Marche and Calabria are saying the opposite. Who knows if at the Nazarene they will have humility, or even just lucidity, to read what happened and to remedy it before Meloni is further consolidated, lowering the tones and choosing to speak to that part of the country benevolent to listen to a less ideological and more centered message on the themes that care about people. Also because after Marche and Calabria are regions in theory more favorable to Schlein, but now nothing is more obvious.

In Tuscany it will be difficult for the forecasts to be overturned, but in Campania and Puglia, with the air that pulls, things for the dem seem less safe than they appeared a month ago.