If we observe the trend of party consensus, 2025 appears to be a year that did not produce major ruptures or sudden turning points. The balance of power has not been upset, no new phases have opened nor political cycles have closed. Yet, it is precisely this apparent normality that represents the most significant fact. In a political system accustomed to rapid and often traumatic oscillations, 2025 was configured as a year of consolidation, in which Italian politics showed a stability that was anything but predictable.

The Government has (slightly) strengthened

The government majority, albeit slightly, strengthened over the year, as reported by Tecnè. Read in the physiological dynamics of political cycles, this fact takes on a precise meaning: consensus grows in a phase in which, as a rule, it tends to reduce. In the absence of clear electoral accounting, political interpretation refers to a process of consolidation of government action, developed over time and not linked to contingent factors or individual episodes. In this context, the growth of Fratelli d’Italia has a double political value. Not only because the party increases its consensus, but because it does so by expressing the Prime Minister. Historically, government parties are exposed to progressive attrition, especially when they operate in complex and unstable contexts.

Stability and reliability

The fact that Fratelli d’Italia is growing slowly but continuously suggests that a significant part of the electorate recognizes the government’s ability to guarantee stability, direction and reliability. It is not an emotional consensus, but a trust that is built over the test of time. This element must be read in light of the broader context. The years following the pandemic have left a legacy of profound economic and social fragilities, while the international scenario remains marked by conflicts, geopolitical tensions and structural uncertainties. In this framework, political stability has become a collective value. Giorgia Meloni gave the image of a country that maintains a stable and coherent line. Even on an international level, Italy today expresses a level of authority that was not to be taken for granted, even more so in a phase of widespread difficulty for Europe. Alongside Fratelli d’Italia, the strength of Forza Italia deserves attention. Beyond an accounting that records a slight drop of a few decimals, the political data remains relevant. Antonio Tajani managed to give structure and continuity to a party which, after the death of its historic leader, appeared to many to be destined for progressive downsizing. It was not a foregone conclusion. Tajani expresses a highly relevant international profile, gained through years of experience in European institutions, and a political culture that has its roots in the popular, liberal and reformist vein. It is a tradition that runs through Italian republican history, from De Gasperi to Berlusconi, and which today contributes to giving Forza Italia back a recognizable identity base. Today Forza Italia is the second party in the government coalition and is close to the 5 Star Movement. A fact that certifies a presence that is anything but marginal in the political and institutional balance of the country. The League maintains a significant consensus and continues to be a strategic player in some areas of the country, where its territorial roots remain strong and impact local and regional political balances. Overall, the majority appears to be a system that has found an internal balance: Fratelli d’Italia as a driving force, Forza Italia as a component of stability, the League as a territorial garrison. A setup that does not produce sudden accelerations, but which guarantees continuity. In this context, the executive’s evaluation is not limited to a comparison by subtraction, but takes on the characteristics of a positive judgment on government action.

Consent

The increase in consensus, in a phase in which it normally tends to erode, indicates that a growing part of the electorate recognizes the government’s ability to hold, reliability and continuity. On the opposite front, the center-left continues to present itself as a camp that has been under construction for too long. It is not just a question of leadership, but of political identity. The recurring discussion about who should challenge Giorgia Meloni tends to precede, and often replace, the more complex work of defining a recognizable government proposal. In the eyes of voters, this long phase of development gives the image of a still incomplete alternative. And victories in the regional elections in Puglia or Tuscany are not enough to change this perception. The consensus data reflects this difficulty. The Democratic Party is retreating, the 5 Star Movement is growing but remains predominantly anchored to a function of representing hardship, while the centrist forces are struggling to broaden the overall perimeter of the opposition. A coalition dynamic capable of truly competing on government ground does not emerge. Added to this is an element that runs through the entire political system: the growth of abstentionism, which also clearly emerged in the regional sessions. The increase in non-participation is not just a sign of disaffection, but the reflection of a growing distance between a part of the electoral body and the political offering as a whole. It is a suspension of judgment that silently but persistently accompanies the evolution of consensus. Ultimately, 2025 was a year in which the consensus moved slowly, rewarding stability over change. And it is precisely for this reason that the transition to 2026 takes on a particular significance. A different phase now opens, the one that precedes the natural conclusion of the legislature, in which the political time shortens and the voters’ judgment becomes more demanding. It will no longer be just a matter of measuring the resistance of the government or the fragility of the alternatives, but of evaluating what this political cycle will actually have left to the country and the direction it will be able to indicate. 2026 marks the beginning of the long road that will lead to the next political elections. The picture appears more stable today than it was in the past, but the meaning of this stability is still to be defined. And it is precisely in this space, between continuity and waiting, that the game will be played in the coming months.