After a long count, which lasted more than 24 hours, the leader of the D66 party, the liberal Rob Jetten, seems to have prevailed over the far-right exponent of the PVV, Geert Wilders, winning the elections in Holland. The results remain unofficial, but the 38-year-old Jetten is well positioned to become the youngest leader of the European Union’s fifth-largest economy. The next steps will be to form an executive: the negotiations for the formation of the governing coalition promise to be long.
Votes still partial but clear
At the end of the partial vote, the Liberal Party was the most voted. The ANP Electoral Service declared the victory of D66, which was ahead by over 15,200 votes after the count. Geert Wilders’ far-right party can no longer close the vote gap separating it from the liberals.
The outcome in the city of Venray was decisive, where in 2023 the PVV had passed D66. Now, the liberal-progressive party has instead prevailed among voters who voted by post. While awaiting the votes of the 135,000 Dutch residents abroad – traditionally closer to the positions of the political center – the Electoral Service has drawn up the preliminary ballot, which will now have to be validated by the Dutch electoral commission.
But the outcome already seems clear. Because according to the election report, Jetten could even get one more seat than Wilders. After the initial advantage of the liberal-progressive in the exit polls released on Wednesday evening at the close of the polls, the two parties have been tied at 26 seats since the beginning of the counting: an additional seat would therefore allow the D66 to overtake the PVV also in terms of parliamentary representation.
When will the Dutch government be formed?
A final result will not be known until Monday, when the Central Electoral Office (Kiesraad) will verify the outcome of the votes. The long wait is linked to the Dutch electoral system: in the Netherlands there is no real threshold, and the distribution of seats occurs entirely proportionally. It is enough to obtain 0.67 percent of the votes to enter Parliament. A mechanism that ensures representation even for the smallest parties, but which favors fragmentation and makes it more difficult to build a stable coalition.
Possible coalitions
Based on the partial results, the options for a new government appear limited. A first hypothesis is a centre-right majority led by D66, supported by the Christian Democrats of the CDA (18 seats) and the liberals of the VVD (20 seats). But this alliance would need nine more deputies, who could come from the moderate right of JA21 or from the external support of small conservative parties such as 50+ or ChristenUnie. Even so, the majority would be fragile: around 80 seats out of 76 needed, distributed between at least six political forces.
A more stable, but politically more complex, scenario would be a coalition between D66, CDA and VVD together with the centre-left, represented by Labor and the Greens. In this case, D66 leader Rob Jetten could count on around 86 seats, bringing together most of the political spectrum, excluding the extremists. However, the leader of the VVD, Dilan Yesilgoz, has already ruled out participation in a “left-wing government”.
The formation of the new executive, therefore, promises to be long and complicated. Whatever the final formula, it appears certain that the future Dutch government will maintain a pro-European orientation, but will have to be based on a precarious balance between very different political forces.
