There is a common thread that, as in the game of dominoes, unites the reforms destined to animate the path of Italian politics between now and the 2027 elections. And it is a common thread that makes 2026 resemble the “year of reforms”: possible, probable or not, we’ll see. Justice, premiership, electoral law, differentiated autonomy are words that will keep us company for a long time and which, as we will understand, are inextricably linked to each other.

The first turning point: the referendum on justice

The first reform we will have to deal with is the constitutional referendum on justice, scheduled (it seems, because there is no official date yet) for next 22 and 23 March. The contents are quite well known and in any case we will have the opportunity to return to them: here we are especially interested in looking at the political implications, which are very significant.

Although the prime minister has avoided loading the referendum with a personal meaning – so as not to repeat the “Renzi effect”, the mistake of 2016 when the former scrap dealer linked his fate to the constitutional question – it is clear that a defeat would have a heavy impact on Giorgia Meloni. It would force her to spend the rest of the legislature trying to piece together the pieces of the majority and save what can be saved before the elections. The Prime Minister’s path from 24 March 2026 to the spring of 2027 would resemble that of a lame duck: any relaunch is difficult, and especially difficult is the move towards the other reform that the Prime Minister has in mind, the new electoral law, which in the intentions should instead occupy the majority’s calendar between April and May.

The temptation of the electoral law

On the contrary, a Yes victory would give wings to the government, allowing the prime minister to address the issue of the “rules”, i.e. the electoral law. Giorgia Meloni is very keen on this reform because she believes that the current Rosatellum – a mixed proportional-majoritarian system – is not able to offer a certain winner on the evening of the vote and instead tends to guarantee that “draw” which would pave the way for technical governments, fatally blocking her reconfirmation at Palazzo Chigi. The model the prime minister is looking at is that of the Regions: a majority with a governability bonus for the winning coalition.

The path to the approval of a new electoral law, however, would not be simple even in the event of a Yes victory. Because, despite sharing the basic approach of the reform, Lega and Forza Italia cultivate (sometimes not even very subtly) a series of reservations, for example regarding the indication of the prime minister candidate on the ballot paper. And even if these different views were overcome, it would remain to convince the opposition, which promises barricades by waving the slogan: “Meloni wants to bend the rules just before the vote to ensure victory”.

In reality, rumors in the Palace say that Elly Schlein would be tempted to go and look at the prime minister’s cards – after all, the leader of the Democratic Party would also benefit from a system capable of determining a certain winner – but it is difficult to imagine that, a few months before the elections, the two coalitions will actually sit around a table, in love and in agreement, to discuss the rules of the game.

Premiership, reform impossible

The reform of the electoral law in the terms just described – and here the domino returns – politically opens the door to the premiership. Like the premiership, a new voting system would also guarantee a certain majority with a certain prime minister: not indicated on the ballot, but in fact clearly identified. It is no coincidence that Giorgia Meloni recently returned to propose the constitutional reform which provides for the direct election of the prime minister, despite the fact that the time needed to reach definitive approval in this legislature no longer exists.

The bill on the premiership was approved in the Senate: a passage in the Chamber would now be needed and then – at a distance of no less than three months – a new vote in both the Senate and Montecitorio, in addition to the expected confirmation referendum. It is a path that, in the times of the legislature, appears impossible. The “realistic” objective of the majority could then be another: to approve the text (we will see whether with all four readings or not) and present it to the voters for the 2027 elections. The majority would make it their flag, the opposition would wave it as a bogeyman. With a decisive clarification: if the current Parliament exhausts the four readings, the confirmatory referendum could be held in the next legislature; if, however, the readings were not completed, in the next legislature the process would have to start completely over again and what has been done so far would become waste paper.

The reform ended in limbo

The last reform mentioned at the beginning is the differentiated autonomy, desired by the League, approved in 2024 but significantly reduced by some rulings of the Constitutional Court, which have placed it in a legislative limbo from which it will be difficult to escape in this legislature. It is more likely that we will talk about it again in the next one. Or, given the mood in the South – with governors, even center-right, often against it – let it not be discussed at all.