First there was the amendment on the construction of border walls, then the budget law, finally the Sakharov prize awarded to the opposition in Venezuela. The triad of votes during the last plenary of the European Parliament clearly showed that there is no stable majority in the government of the European Union. Or rather: there are two. And the European People’s Party (EPP) changes it as needed. In the three cases in question, the People’s Party voted in the same way as the ultra-right groups, who would have been excluded from the government of Europe following the latest European elections.
Officially, the Commission led by Ursula von der Leyen was confirmed for the second mandate by a majority made up of popular, socialists and liberals. The Greens, however, remained in the waiting room, hoping to complete the work on the Green Deal. The pro-European wall, which has governed Europe for years and kept the far right excluded, has actually been crumbling for some time, but the signs in this mandate are more evident. The contradictions and dangers of this choice also, not only on an ideological level, but also on a practical level.
The alliance of the People’s Party with far-right groups
The collaboration of the People’s Party with Giorgia Meloni’s Reformists and Conservatives, already experimented at the end of the last legislature, has expanded. The EPP even votes like the Patriots for Europe of Viktor Orban, who on paper remains a declared enemy, but in reality becomes a precious ally. And it also votes like the “Europe of Sovereign Nations” group, of the “pariahs” of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), accused of having neo-Nazis in their ranks.
The sanitary cordon has been torn apart, but the consequences on the governance of Brussels are currently unknown. The German politician Manfred Weber is considered the deus ex-machina of this opportunistic centre-right bordering on cynicism. The People’s Party aims to tighten policies on migration, defense and competitiveness. All issues dear to the right, while it is less obvious to get certain measures approved by collaborating with the centre-left. Or you simply need more compromises. On the other hand, according to various commentators, it would be impossible for the People’s Party to govern systematically with the far right, given their anti-EU propensity which leads them to constantly vote “against”.
The socialists’ dilemma
The most compromised are the socialists, to which the Democratic Party adheres. A source says that the collapse of the sanitary cordon is not considered a scandal for the EPP. “Ursula von der Leyen is very pragmatic,” a Spanish MEP, who prefers to remain anonymous, explained to EuropaToday. “All planning, including hearing and voting calendars, is done by the EPP to facilitate collaboration with far-right groups,” he revealed.
Nonetheless, the socialists remain in the majority. Prisoners of a sense of responsibility or of the seats that are theirs, as the second largest group in the European Chamber? Escaping von der Leyen’s “blackmail” is more complex than expected. The far right does not intend to govern Europe, certainly not under the leadership of von der Leyen. If socialists and liberals were to slip away from the majority, the EU risks a total impasse, both at the legislative and executive levels. Handing over the EU institutions into the hands of anti-Europeanists is a risk that few seem willing to take.
The vote on the commissioners
The moment of truth will come soon. The hearings of the designated commissioners are scheduled from 4 to 12 November. In front of the MEPs of the various committees, the potential “ministers” will present the plans for their mandate trying to convince the sceptics. It will be a battle at Risk. There is a chain that links all the appointments proposed by von der Leyen, even though they are representatives of different groups.
The most difficult name to swallow seems to be that of the Italian Raffaele Fitto, appointed executive vice-president and designated commissioner for Cohesion and Reforms. The exponent of Fratelli d’Italia represents von der Leyen’s “gift” to Meloni, despite the fact that the Ecr group is not part of the official majority. He should get the solid vote of the EPP, but could be betrayed by S&D and Renew branches. The rejection of one or more commissioners means calling into question the entire delicate balancing act set up by German politics.
Mario Draghi as an alternative to Von der Leyen
If the package of commissioners does not pass, there would be two paths. Or von der Leyen resigns and renounces his second term. Either the German leader understands that there is only one majority that can really support her for another five years, she rolls up her sleeves and finds names that can fully satisfy socialists and liberals, without betraying their trust anymore, exploiting their votes on the basis to occasions. With around 26% representation, the EPP in any case needs alliances to govern.
Draghi’s plan: 800 billion immediately to save Europe
According to reporter Christian Spillmann, an expert on European issues, a resignation by von der Leyen could lead to an unexpected appointment. That of Mario Draghi, to whom von der Leyen herself turned to have the complex report on competitiveness drawn up. His experience on economic issues would also gather consensus among the heads of government, whose mandate is essential to govern in Brussels. But this is still a very distant hypothesis. Regarding the votes of the commissioners, for now the silence remains sealed. Socialists and liberals hope that von der Leyen will give up the “liquid majority” and commit exclusively to them for the next term. A promise of loyalty that is difficult to keep.
