The theory of Pentagon Pizza Index proposes of provide for international conflicts Based on the number of orders received from pizzerias close to Pentagon. The idea at the base is that, in moments of high geopolitical tension, the number of pizzas ordered by the Pentagon staff increases, since they work late and eat in the office. This index has long been known by journalists US, who use it to try to anticipate news on military and political crisis. Despite being useful for move up many events important, the last of which is theUS attack on Iran on the night of June 22, they are not here still enough data To demonstrate that there is actually a cause-effect relationship between pizza orders and world crises and that it is not simple coincidences.
What is the Pentagon Pizza Index
Pentagon Pizza Index is a informal indicator used to try to foresee the beginning of one international crisis. At the base of the theory is the idea that a increase of the orders takeaway in pizzerias near the Pentagon may indicate that government officials are working outside hours, often in response to emergency situations Or urgent operational decisions. Since the Pentagon is the headquarters of the Department of Defense US, an anomaly in the number of night deliveries may suggest that military actions are being prepared or that critical events have occurred.
The pizza index to predire wars was born as a Russian espionage technique
Even if this theory may seem absurd, the Pentagon Pizza Index was surprisingly useful For predict crisis World Cup and dates back to the time of the War Cold. At that time it was said that the Soviet agents In Washington monitored the deliveries of the pizzas, the most common takeaway food at the time, and the extraordinary of the attendants to follow the activities of the US government. This espionage technique deserved the nickname “pizzint”, that is Pizza Intelligence.
This theory then became public domain over the years 90when Frank Meekswhich managed 43 stores in the pizzerias chain Domino’s In the Washington area, he declared at the Los Angeles Times that he could predict when something big would happen before the media simply by observing the sale of pizzas:
“The media do not always know when something important is about to happen because they are in bed, but those who deliver the pizza is around 2 in the morning”.
In fact, he had noticed that on the night of August 1, 1990 the CIA had ordered many more pizzas than normal. The next day, Iraq invaded the Kuwait, starting the Gulf War.
Although a completely informal tool remains, over time the Index pizza has been used by journalists to understand if something big happened before the official news came out. In the 90s, anomalous increases in pizza sales were recorded in coincidence with theinvasion of the Kuwaitthe scandal Clinton –lewinsky and the start of the operation “Desert Fox“In Iraq.
He anticipated the attacks on Iran
This theory has recently reappeared when the April 13th 2024in conjunction with the Iranian attack towards Israel, a peak Of activity In a room in the pizzerias chain Pope John’s.
Unlike the 90s, today it is no longer necessary to ask the managers of the premises to know the increase in activity in the various pizzerias: thanks to Google It is possible to view in real time when a business receives a number of visits higher than average. It is precisely by exploiting these data that the X account was born (ex Twitter) “Pentagon pizza reports“, Dedicated to monitoring and reporting every anomaly in the levels of activity of pizzerias in the Pentagon area.
In the last few days, the account has attracted attention for anticipating two important military events. The 12 June 2025 has reported a “enormous increase in activity”At District Pizza Palace, just an hour before That Israel hit Tehran. The June 22ndon the other hand, another peak was detected in a place Pope John’sjust before Donald Trump announced theUS attack to plants enrichment nuclear Iranians.
How reliable is Pentagon Pizza Index?
Of course, use pizza deliveries to predict a global crisis Not It is a scientifically verified method. The Index pizza is not based on official data and trying to interpret the increase in deliveries as a signal of an imminent crisis can lead to completely unfounded conclusions. The official statements of the Pentagon reject this theory, underlining that many options are available inside the building (not only pizza, but also sushi, sandwiches and donuts) making it not necessary to order food from the outside.
In order to consider this type of index reliable, it would be necessary demonstrate a cause-effect relationship between the increase in deliveries and the outbreak of global events. But with the data currently available, everything we can observe is How much pizzas and crises they are tied among them. In statistics it is said that pizzas and crises they are related (that is, they vary together), but There is no test that one causes the other.
Another limit of this index is the risk of consider Alone the cases That confirm there theoryignoring all those times when the activity of the pizzerias has increased without anything relevant happening. Just think, for example, of the evenings when orders grow for a football match. This “mental error” is called confirmation bias And it is the tendency to notice and remember only those cases that give us reason, neglecting the rest.
Having said that, if suddenly the ordinations of takeaway food near the Pentagon start to rise abnormally, it may still be worth keeping an eye on the news.
